Exploration of Hazardous Material Truck Crashes on Wyoming’s Interstate Roads using a Novel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Markov Chain Bayesian Inference

Ahmed, Izrar; Gaweesh, Sherif; Ahmed, Mohamed M.

doi:10.1177/0361198120931103

Cited by 24 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Injury severity outcomes from crashes are usually ordered starting with the lowest level, reported as no injury or property damage only, and the consequent levels reported as: possible injury, non-incapacitating injury, incapacitating injury, and, at the highest level, fatal injury. Much literature exists where researchers have utilized ordered logistic ( 18 – 20 ) or probit models ( 21 , 22 ) to analyze crash injury severity as an ordinal discrete outcome. Crash injury severity has also been explored as an unordered response variable using multinomial models ( 23 , 24 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Investigating the Temporal Instability in Injury Severity Outcomes of Clear and Adverse Weather Crashes on Rural Mountainous Highways

Ahmed

2021

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Analysis of driver injury severity based on weather conditions on rural highways is limited in the literature. Such analyses provide insights useful to policymakers in optimizing the allocation of limited resources based on weather conditions. Furthermore, if there is a possibility of factors exhibiting temporal instability, then an aggregate analysis can lead to erroneous allocation of funds. In this study, separate models for clear and adverse weather conditions were developed for each of the years from 2015 to 2019 using crash data from a rural mountainous highway corridor. A random-intercept Bayesian logistic approach was used to analyze the dichotomous injury severity response and capture the between-crash variance. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique known as the No-U-Turn Hamiltonian Monte Carlo was employed to sample the posterior distributions of parameter estimates. Likelihood ratio tests provided statistical significance of the temporal instability and also the differences in driver injury severities resulting from clear and adverse weather crashes. While most of the variables demonstrated temporal instability, some factors exhibited temporal stability over a short period of time and only during clear weather conditions. Findings from the separate models suggest that there are major differences in both the combination and magnitude of the significant contributing factors. Implementation of confirmatory warning signs, variable message signs, connected vehicle technology, strict enforcements during different times and locations, and driver awareness programs have been recommended as suitable countermeasures. The findings and recommendations could potentially help in guiding the respective agencies in formulating injury severity mitigation policies and strategies.

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confidence: 99%

“…Crash injury severity analysis using a Bayesian approach has also gained popularity ( 13, 20, 25–28 ). In a Bayesian modeling framework, prior distributions on parameters can be assigned which, when combined with the likelihood of the observed data, provide posterior probability distributions of the parameters.…”

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confidence: 99%

Investigating the Temporal Instability in Injury Severity Outcomes of Clear and Adverse Weather Crashes on Rural Mountainous Highways

Ahmed

2021

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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“…The traffic crashes recorded evaluated by regression analysis using Joinpoint software (Joinpoint regression software version 4.8.0.1-April 2020, available from the US National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Research Program) [54]. The analysis performed in the software served to identify, through joinpoints, the most significant changes in the data entered, which helped identify the variables that are most relevant to the study, in addition to using the Monte Carlo permutation method present in the program to select the appropriate joinpoints by comparing two different joinpoints [55][56][57]. The Grid Search method was selected [58].…”

Section: Study Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Road Safety as a Public Health Problem: Case of Ecuador in the Period 2000–2019

et al. 2021

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Background: Road safety is a significant public health problem because it causes negative consequences on victims and families. The objective was to analyze the most significant changes in traffic crashes in Ecuador during the period from 2000 to 2019. With data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Census, we performed the analysis to identify: the number of traffic crashes, the number of victims, and other study variables. Methods: Descriptive and analytical statistics and the contrast of proportions were used to analyze data from 2000 to 2019. Results: According to the ideal joinpoint analysis model, there was a significant decrease in the number of recorded traffic accidents from 2015 to 2019 of −8.54 per year, while the tendency to die increased in females (2.05 per year) and males (3.29 per year). The most common crash was a collision, and the automobile appeared as the most involved vehicle from 2015 to 2019. The hypothesis test contrast is used to determine if statistically significant differences exist between age groups by gender of the driver injured in the period 2017–2018. Conclusions: This study determines the most significant changes in the variables related to traffic crashes, where mortality due to this cause in the last four years has had a growth rate of 1.8% compared to collisions that presented a rate of −31.12%. The contrast of the hypothesis test shows significant differences in the injury level between males and female drivers, depending on the age group.

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“…To the best of the authors’ knowledge, very few studies have investigated the safety performance of CVs in mitigating the risk of SCs on heavy trucks, more specifically under adverse weather conditions that can frequently occur along I-80. Here, analyzing truck drivers’ behavior was of interest because the literature has indicated a significant increase in large truck crash rates, which are more severe than passenger car crashes ( 63 – 64 ). Furthermore, because of the inherent job responsibilities and participation in secondary tasks, truck drivers are more susceptible to distraction ( 65 , 66 ), which, in turn, might reduce their situational awareness leading to SCs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety Performance Assessment of Connected Vehicles in Mitigating the Risk of Secondary Crashes: A Driving Simulator Study

Gaweesh

Bakhshi

Ahmed

2021

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Traffic crashes can be divided into primary and secondary crashes. Secondary crashes occur as a consequence of primary crashes within their spatiotemporal distances. Secondary crashes comprise nearly 20% of all crashes and 18% of fatal crashes, in which they can possibly have a higher crash severity than the primary crash. Interstate-80 in Wyoming is a major rural corridor with a high freight traffic volumes. The Federal Highway Administration selected Wyoming in which to deploy connected vehicle (CV) technology with a focus on commercial truck safety. Distress and rerouting applications were among the suite of CV pilot applications. Very few studies have investigated the safety performance of CVs in mitigating the risk of secondary crashes on heavy trucks, more specifically under adverse weather conditions. This study filled this gap by conducting a driving simulator experiment to assess the effectiveness of CV distress and rerouting applications in mitigating the effects of secondary crashes. A total of 23 truck drivers were recruited to this study. The analysis was conducted on the vehicle kinematics obtained from the driving simulator. A CV and a nonCV scenario were designed to compare the participants’ driving behavior under adverse weather conditions. The results showed that the tested CV applications succeeded in enhancing driving behaviors by reducing the operating speed as well as the speed variation, and all the participants avoided a secondary crash in the CV environment. In addition, the distress notification coupled with the road closure reduced the average operating speed by 26% from the provided speed limit.

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Exploration of Hazardous Material Truck Crashes on Wyoming’s Interstate Roads using a Novel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Markov Chain Bayesian Inference

Cited by 24 publications

References 56 publications

Investigating the Temporal Instability in Injury Severity Outcomes of Clear and Adverse Weather Crashes on Rural Mountainous Highways

Investigating the Temporal Instability in Injury Severity Outcomes of Clear and Adverse Weather Crashes on Rural Mountainous Highways

Road Safety as a Public Health Problem: Case of Ecuador in the Period 2000–2019

Safety Performance Assessment of Connected Vehicles in Mitigating the Risk of Secondary Crashes: A Driving Simulator Study

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