Exploratory study on the land area required for global food supply and the potential global production of bioenergy

Wolf, J.; Bindraban, P.S.; Luijten, Joep; Vleeshouwers, L.M.

doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(02)00077-x

Cited by 82 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Data on yields and areas for 19 crops and data on areas suitable for crop production in general are included in our calculations. 22,23 Data on areas suitable for crop production were classified by the IIASA based on the crop yield as a percentage of the maximum constraint free yield (MCFY). The MCFY was determined by the temperature and irradiation regimes.…”

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some countries such an expansion may lead to a further water scarcity and/or the emergence of water scarcity. 22 These are: wheat, rice, barley, maize, rye, millet, sorghum, cassava, potatoes, sweet potatoes, sugar cane, sugar beet, pulses, soybeans, groundnuts, sunflower, rapeseed, cottonseed and palmkernels. These crops represent 85% of the global area under crop production.…”

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Wolf et al [22] calculated that up to 38% of the present agricultural land could be made available for bioenergy production in the year 2050, assuming a moderate population growth, an (on average) affluent diet, and an high input crop production system. Further, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) reported that in many countries average wheat yields (expressed in t ha À1 yr…”

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A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

Smeets

Faaij

Lewandowski

et al. 2007

Progress in Energy and Combustion Science

548

363

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In this article, a model for estimating bioenergy production potentials in 2050, called the Quickscan model, is presented. In addition, a review of existing studies is carried out, using results from the Quickscan model as a starting point. The Quickscan model uses a bottom-up approach and its development is based on an evaluation of data and studies on relevant factors such as population growth, per capita food consumption and the efficiency of food production. Three types of biomass energy sources are included: dedicated bioenergy crops, agricultural and forestry residues and waste, and forest growth. The bioenergy potential in a region is limited by various factors, such as the demand for food, industrial roundwood, traditional woodfuel, and the need to maintain existing forests for the protection of biodiversity. Special attention is given to the technical potential to reduce the area of land needed for food production by increasing the efficiency of food production. Thus, only the surplus area of agricultural land is included as a source for bioenergy crop production. A reference scenario was composed to analyze the demand for food. Four levels of advancement of agricultural technology in the year 2050 were assumed that vary with respect to the efficiency of food production. Results indicated that the application of very efficient agricultural systems combined with the geographic optimization of land use patterns could reduce the area of land needed to cover the global food demand in 2050 by as much as 72% of the present area. A key factor was the area of land suitable for crop production, but that is presently used for permanent grazing. Another key factor is the efficiency of the production of animal products. The bioenergy potential on surplus agricultural land (i.e. land not needed for the production of food and feed) equaled 215-1272 EJ yr , respectively. However, realization of these (technical) potentials requires significant increases in the efficiency of food production, whereby the most robust potential is found in the C.I.S. and Baltic States and East Europe. Existing scenario studies indicated that such increases in productivity may be unrealistically high, although these studies generally excluded the impact of large scale bioenergy crop production. The global potential of bioenergy production from agricultural and forestry residues and wastes was calculated to be 76-96 EJ yr À1 in the year 2050. The potential of bioenergy production from surplus forest growth (forest growth not required for the production of industrial roundwood and traditional woodfuel) was calculated to be 74 EJ yr À1 in the year 2050.

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Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Article In Pressmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

Smeets

Faaij

Lewandowski

et al. 2007

Progress in Energy and Combustion Science

548

363

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“…The once plentiful space for reclaiming new fertile lands, tapping water reserves for irrigation, and boosting yields through agro-chemicals and varieties that invest more of their assimilates in seeds or tubers is gradually being depleted. At the global level, the biophysical potential for farm production is still adequate (PENNING DE VRIES et al, 1995;WOLF et al, 2003), even allowing for claims on land and water for urbanization and biodiversity conservation (KONING et al, 2008). However, rising prices of fossil fuels will increase food production costs and strengthen the demand for biofuels and biochemicals, which will compete for biomass with food production.…”

Section: Long-term Global Food Availability: Continued Abundance or Nmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of farm policies: a long-term global perspective

Koning¹

2013

Integration Through Subordination

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This paper presents a nutshell interpretation of the evolution of farm policies through different periods and in different parts of the world. Starting in the pre-industrial era, when population growth still caused agricultural prices to rise, to the latter part of the nineteenth century, when the Industrial Revolution brought about a regime change in international agricultural markets as chronic scarcity gave way to recurrent oversupply. Under this new condition, farm progress became increasingly dependent on government support, especially of family farms. The policy responses to this change in different regions and the consequences this had for development have been surveyed. The paper ends with a discussion about the possibility that increased competition among food, feed and fuel might cause a return to scarcity in international agricultural markets in the future and the necessity for policies that make possible global food security and sustainable pro-poor growth.Keywords | Farm policies; food security; pro-poor growth. JEL Code | N50; Q18; Q58. A EVOLUÇÃO DAS POLÍTICAS AGRÍCOLAS: UMA PERSPECTIVA GLOBAL DE LONGO PRAZO ResumoEste artigo apresenta uma interpretação resumida da evolução das políticas agrícolas ao longo de diferentes períodos e em diferentes partes do mundo. Começando no período pré-industrial, quando o crescimento da população ainda provocou elevação nos preços agrícolas, vai-se em direção ao final do século XIX, quando a Revolução Industrial trouxe uma mudança de regime em mercados agrícolas internacionais, dando a escassez crônica lugar a recorrentes excessos de oferta. Sob esta nova condição, o progresso agrícola tornou-se cada vez mais dependente do apoio governamental, em especial à agricultura familiar. Daí que se pesquisa as respostas de políticas a essa mudança em diferentes regiões e as suas consequências para o desenvolvimento. O artigo conclui com uma discussão sobre a possibilidade de que o aumento da concorrência entre alimentos, ração e combustível cause um retorno à escassez nos mercados agrícolas internacionais no futuro e a necessidade de políticas que tornem possível a segurança alimentar e o crescimento sustentável pró-pobre. Niek KoningREVISTA BRASILEIRA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO REGIONAL, BLUMENAU, 3 (2), P. 5-32, PRIMAVERA DE 2015 6 | Palavras-chave | Crescimento pró-pobre; políticas agrícolas; segurança alimentar.Código JEL | N50; Q18; Q58. LA EVOLUCIÓN DE LAS POLÍTICAS AGRÍCOLAS: UNA PERSPECTIVA GLOBAL A LARGO PLAZO ResumenEste artículo presenta una interpretación resumida de la evolución de las políticas agrícolas a lo largo de diferentes períodos y en diferentes partes del mundo. Empezando en el período preindustrial, cuando el crecimiento de la población provocó el aumento de los precios agrícolas, se sigue al final del siglo XIX, cuando la Revolución Industrial trajo un cambio de régimen en los mercados agrícolas internacionales, dando la escasez crónica lugar a recurrentes excesos de oferta. Bajo esta condición nueva, el progreso agrícola se tornó cada vez más ...

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“…However, an often-heard concern is that large-scale biomass plantations might increase pressure on the productive land and might cause a substantial increase of food prices (McCarl and Schneider, 2001;Azar, 2003). In contrast, many scientists claim that the food policies that were established after the 2 nd World War resulted in today's overproduction of food, and hence the welfare impact of the increased pressure on land may be limited (Tilman et al, 2002;Trewavas, 2002;Wolf et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Product Crops for Agricultural and Energy Production - An AGE Analysis for Poland

Ignaciuk

Dellink

2005

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Multi-Product Crops for Agricultural and Energy Production -an AGE Analysis for Poland SummaryBy-products from agriculture and forestry can contribute to production of clean and cheap (bio)electricity. To assess the role of such multi-product crops in the response to climate policies, we present an applied general equilibrium model with special attention to biomass and multi-product crops for Poland. The potential to boost production of bioelectricity through the use of multi-product crops turns out to be limited to only 2-3% of total electricity production. Further expansion of the bioelectricity sector will have to be based on biomass crops explicitly grown for energy purposes. The competition between agriculture and biomass for scarce land remains limited, given the availability of relatively poor land types and substitution possibilities. The importance of indirect effects illustrates that the AGE framework is appropriate.

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Exploratory study on the land area required for global food supply and the potential global production of bioenergy

Cited by 82 publications

References 15 publications

A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050

The evolution of farm policies: a long-term global perspective

Multi-Product Crops for Agricultural and Energy Production - An AGE Analysis for Poland

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