Increasing
the minimum octane ratings of the U.S. gasoline pool
would enable higher engine efficiency in future light-duty vehicles
(e.g., through higher compression ratio engines), facilitating greater
vehicle fuel economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions. This study
applied a linear programming model of the aggregate U.S. refining
sector to estimate the technical and economic effects of producing
a gasoline pool meeting alternative combinations of national standards
for ethanol content, minimum research octane number (RON), and minimum
octane sensitivity (OS = RON – MON, where MON is the motor
octane number). The primary effects assessed included refining capacity
additions and investments, incremental refining and fuel production
costs, crude oil consumption, refinery CO2 emissions, and
national average gasoline properties and composition. The analysis
indicated that (i) with refining technology and gasoline blendstocks
currently used in the U.S, the average RON and OS of the gasoline
pool could be increased significantly using conventional refining
processes and gasoline blendstocks, especially at higher levels of
ethanol blending; (ii) a 102 RON standard could be met with E15, E20,
and E25; (iii) the highest attainable OS standard would be 10 OS with
E10, 12 OS with E15, 13 OS with E20, and 14 OS with E25. While incremental
fuel production costs ($/gal) and refining investment requirements
($ billion) would increase with increasing RON and OS standards (for
each level of assumed ethanol blending), increased RON for E10 gasoline
might be attained at a cost of 3 and 10¢/gal for 95 and 98 RON,
respectively. Adding large volumes of a high-RON, high-OS blendstock,
such as ethanol (currently produced in large volume) or iso-octene
(currently produced in only de minimis volumes), would extend the
achievable RON and OS frontier, with high OS levels achievable only
with iso-octene significantly increasing incremental refining cost.
Additional ethanol use would offset some of the increase in incremental
refining cost by reducing the required volume and RON of the hydrocarbon
portion of the gasoline pool.