Exploring and Predicting Landscape Changes and Their Driving Forces within the Mulan River Basin in China from the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecological Space

Abstract

With rapid economic development and urban expansion, China faces a serious imbalance between production, living, and ecological land use, in which the erosion of water ecological space by urban expansion is especially notable. In order to alleviate or solve this imbalance, this study constructs the water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin based on national land spatial planning using remote sensing statistics and the 2000–2020 statistical yearbooks for the Mulan River Basin. A landscape index is applied to explore this landscape in terms of its production–living–ecological space (PLES) patterns and evolutionary characteristics. Factors affecting the drivers of PLES changes are analyzed through Geo-Detector, and predictions are made using the cellular automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. It was found that (1) PLES distribution patterns in the Mulan River Basin from 2000 to 2020 are dominated by non-watershed ecological spaces, with a significant expansion of living space. Its ecological space is shrinking, and there is significant spatial variation between its near-river and fringe areas. (2) Of the PLES conversions, the most dramatic conversions are those of production space and living space, with 81.14 km2 of production space being transferred into living space. Non-water ecological space and water ecological space are also mainly transferred into production space. (3) As shown by the results of the landscape index calculation, non-water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin is the dominant landscape, the values of the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) and Shannon homogeneity index (SHEI) are small, the overall level of landscape diversity is low, the aggregation index (AI) is high, and the degree of aggregation is obvious. (4) The progressive PLES changes in the Mulan River Basin are influenced by a combination of natural geographic and socioeconomic factors, with the mean population density and mean elevation being the most important factors affecting PLES changes among social and natural factors, respectively. (5) The Kappa coefficient of the CA-Markov model simulation is 0.8187, showing a good simulation accuracy, and it is predicted that the area of water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin will increase by 3.66 km2 by 2030, the area of production space and non-water ecological space will further decrease, and the area of construction land will increase by 260.67 km2. Overall, the aquatic ecological space in the Mulan River Basin has made progress in terms of landscape ecological protection, though it still faces serious erosion. Therefore, attaching importance to the restoration of the water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin, integrating multiple elements of mountains, water, forests, fields, and lakes, optimizing the spatial structure of its PLES dynamics, and formulating a reasonable spatial planning policy are effective means of guaranteeing its ecological and economic sustainable development. This study offers recommendations for and scientific defenses of the logical design of PLES spatial functions in the Mulan River Basin.