Exploring Dependence of COVID-19 on Environmental Factors and Spread Prediction in India

Abstract

The pandemic of “Corona Virus Disease 2019” or COVID-19 has taken the world by storm. Majority of nations of the world have been challenged by the novel coronavirus, which is supposedly of zoonotic origin and is known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The present work attempts to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 in India. The methodology of assessment uses SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model to establish the impact of socio-behavioural aspect, especially social distancing, affecting the numbers of COVID-19 cases per day. The lockdown initiated by Government of India (GoI) scenario is weighed against a scenario with a possible initiation of community spread due to crowded gatherings in India. The resultant changes, as against the lockdown scenario, has been reported in terms of the increase in the number of cases and stretch of the timeline to mitigate the COVID-19 spread. Impact of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity have also been analyzed using statistical methods, including Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Correlation. It has been found that the spread of cases is dependent on environmental conditions, i.e. temperature and relative humidity. This study is expected to help the policymakers and stakeholders to device an improved action plan to alleviate the COVID-19 spread, especially in India.

Significant impacts of COVID-19 lockdown on urban air pollution in Kolkata (India) and amelioration of environmental health

“…It is evident that various preventive measures with social distancing norms have been taken to regulate the transmission of COVID-19 pandemic, whereas these preventive measures directly affect the growth of global economy, human health and environment (Sarkodie and Owusu 2020). Similarly, another study established that social distancing rule is the most effective way for administration to regulate the contagious nature of COVID-19 pandemic in India (Bherwani et al 2020). It is undoubtedly observed that the per day emission rate from road traffic sector was the lowermost on the day of national Janta Curfew in India (CPCB 2009(CPCB , 2020.…”

Air pollution aggravating COVID-19 lethality? Exploration in Asian cities using statistical models

“…The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease, termed as COVID-19, has raised global concerns and led to total lockdown in many countries (WHO 2020a ; Gautam and Trivedi 2020 ; Bherwani et al 2020b ; Wang et al 2020a ). The disease is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Gautam and Hens 2020b ).…”

Making Waves Perspectives of Modelling and Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in Aquatic Environment for COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Bherwani et al 2020 [89] The impact of COVID-19 incidence was analysed using SEIR model, and the impact of temperature and humidity was statistically analysed using Response Surface Methodology in India The impact of government-imposed lockdown was considered in the SEIR (compartmental) model. Further, ANOVA and higher-order polynomial functions of RSM techniques provide much better estimates.…”