Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk

Beard, Simon; Cooke, N.; Dryhurst, Sarah; Cassidy, Michael; Gibbins, Goodwin; Gilgallon, Georgiana; Holt, B.; Josefiina, Ida; Kemp, Luke; Tang, Aaron; Weitzdörfer, Julius; Ingram, Paul; Sundaram, Lalitha; Davies, Rick

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4405991

SSRN Journal

2023

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4405991

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Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk

Simon Beard

N. Cooke

Sarah Dryhurst

et al.

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Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo

Davies

2024

New Drctns Evaluation

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This paper aims to encourage connections between the fields of program evaluation and foresight practice by describing the use of a web application ParEvo as an example of how foresight methods can incorporate evaluative thinking. It begins by introducing the field of foresight practice, along with its differences and commonalities with that of evaluation. It then introduces ParEvo.org and its uses to date, along with a detailed description of how a ParEvo exercise is implemented. An overview is also given of how different types of evaluation activities are built throughout the implementation process. Attention is then focused on three different types of embedded theories of change, and how they can be evaluated. The paper concludes with two observations about the breadth and depth of evaluative thinking present in ParEvo processes and the supporting platform. Some limitations are also acknowledged, arising from the rich nature of the outputs generated and the decentralized nature of the design and operation of ParEvo exercises.

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Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo

Davies

2024

New Drctns Evaluation

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ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures

Davies,

Hobson,

Mani

et al. 2023

Evaluation

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Evaluators’ main encounter with views of the future is in the form of theories of change, about how a programme will work to achieve a desired end, in a given context. These are typically focussed on specific relatively short-term futures, which are both desired and expected. But even in the short term, reality often involves unpredictable events which must be responded to. Other ways of thinking about the future may be helpful and complementary, notably those developed by foresight practitioners working in the field of futures studies. These pay more attention to a range of possible futures, rather than a single perspective. One way of exploring such futures is by using ParEvo.org, an online process that enables the participatory exploration of alternative futures. This article explains how the ParEvo process works, the theory informing its design, and its usage to date. Attention is given to three evaluation challenges, and methods to address them: (a) optimising exercise design, (b) analysis of immediate results and (c) identifying longer-term impacts. Two exercises undertaken by the Cambridge-based Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) in 2021–2022 are used as illustrative examples.

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Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo

Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo

ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures

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