Exploring impacts of development and climate change on stormwater runoff

Abstract

Stormwater runoff is a leading cause of non‐point source pollution in urbanizing areas, and runoff effects will be exacerbated by climate's changing patterns of precipitation. To enhance understanding of impacts of development and climate change on stormwater runoff in small watersheds (< 6500 ha), we developed the Stormwater Runoff Modeling System (SWARM), a simple modeling system based on U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number and unit hydrograph methods. The objective of this paper is to describe the applications possible with SWARM and to demonstrate its usefulness in exploring the impacts of development and climate change on runoff. Results encompass a range of impact scenarios. One development scenario shows that the amount of rainfall converted to runoff is 27% for an undeveloped area and 67% for a highly developed area. A climate scenario shows that the amount of rainfall converted to runoff in a medium developed area is 25% in drought conditions and 76% in wet conditions. User‐friendly templates make SWARM a good tool for scientific research, for resource management and decision making, and for community science education. The modeling system also supports the investigation of social and economic impacts to communities as they adapt to increased development and climate change. Although we calibrated SWARM specifically to the southeast coastal plain, it can be applied to other regions by recalibrating parameters and modifying calculation templates. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Measuring and Modeling Flow Rates in Tidal Creeks: A Case Study from the Central Coast of South Carolina

“…Wimbee was not included in this analysis because a geographic watershed could not be delineated. SWARM has been calibrated to reflect stormwater runoff generated in the shallow slopes and poorly drained soils of the South Carolina coastal plain (Blair et al 2014a;Blair et al 2014b). We calculated runoff volumes for several design storm scenarios at the three sites.…”

Assessment of the relation between atmospheric precipitation and rainwater runoff for various urban surfaces

“…Turning urban areas into impervious surfaces through the process of urbanisation is one of the main factors causing the appearance of excessive volumes of rainwater runoff [ARNOLD, GIBBONS 1996;JENNINGS, JARNAGIN 2002]. That phenomenon is amplified by the global climate change that causes the occurrence of weather anomalies, including intense atmospheric precipitations [BLAIR et al 2014;LARSEN et al 2009]. The increasing character of the phenomenon described above has had an impact on the directions of research in the field of urban hydrology, and the study of relations between the value of surface runoff and the degree of imperviousness of surfaces has become the subject-matter of numerous research works.…”

Simulating the effects of climate change, economic and urban planning scenarios on urban runoff patterns of a metropolitan region

“…Urban flooding is exacerbated when increases in runoff further stress urban drainage systems causing damage to human health, homes and infrastructures such as roads and bridges (Blair et al, 2014). Large parts of the drainage network of Dublin for example have reached or exceeded the limits of their capacity (Dublin Drainage Consortium, 2005) and capacities of drainage systems in other urban centres throughout the world are continuously being tested.…”

“…In this context, the ability to quantify changes in runoff patterns at local scales resulting from climate and land use changes is recognised as being essential for storm water management, environmental research and meeting resource needs (Blair et al, 2014). Assessing potential changes in runoff is required for developing mitigation strategies for land use development policies and for planning of urban drainage infrastructure.…”

“…While some studies have assessed the effects of climate change (for example Jung and Chang (2011), Waters et al (2003) and Zarghami et al (2011)) and changing land use patterns (for example Barron et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2009;Choi & Deal, 2008;Du et al, 2012;Wijesekara et al, 2012;Sathish Kumar et al, 2013) separately, others have assessed the combined effects of these two influences (see for example Alam & Willems, 2012;Blair et al, 2014;Chung et al, 2011;Franczyk & Chang, 2009;Hamdi et al, 2011;Olivera & DeFee, 2007;Praskievicz & Chang, 2011). While some studies have assessed the effects of climate change (for example Jung and Chang (2011), Waters et al (2003) and Zarghami et al (2011)) and changing land use patterns (for example Barron et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2009;Choi & Deal, 2008;Du et al, 2012;Wijesekara et al, 2012;Sathish Kumar et al, 2013) separately, others have assessed the combined effects of these two influences (see for example Alam & Willems, 2012;Blair et al, 2014;Chung et al, 2011;Franczyk & Chang, 2009;Hamdi et al, 2011;Olivera & DeFee, 2007;Praskievicz & Chang, 2011).…”