Exploring Machine Learning Models in Predicting Irrigation Groundwater Quality Indices for Effective Decision Making in Medjerda River Basin, Tunisia

Abstract

Over the last years, the global application of machine learning (ML) models in groundwater quality studies has proved to be a robust alternative tool to produce highly accurate results at a low cost. This research aims to evaluate the ability of machine learning (ML) models to predict the quality of groundwater for irrigation purposes in the downstream Medjerda river basin (DMB) in Tunisia. The random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural networks (ANN), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) models were tested to predict the irrigation quality water parameters (IWQ): total dissolved solids (TDS), potential salinity (PS), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), and magnesium adsorption ratio (MAR) through low-cost, in situ physicochemical parameters (T, pH, EC) as input variables. In view of this, seventy-two (72) representative groundwater samples have been collected and analysed for major cations and anions during pre-and post-monsoon seasons of 3 years (2019–2021) to compute IWQ parameters. The performance of the ML models was evaluated according to Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), the root means square error (RMSE), and the relative bias (RBIAS). The model sensitivity analysis was evaluated to identify input parameters that considerably impact the model predictions using the one-factor-at-time (OFAT) method of the Monte Carlo (MC) approach. The results show that the AdaBoost model is the most appropriate model for predicting all parameters (r was ranged between 0.88 and 0.89), while the random forest model is suitable for predicting only four parameters: TDS, PS, SAR, and ESP (r was with 0.65 to 0.87). Added to that, this study found out that the ANN and SVR models perform well in predicting three parameters (TDS, PS, SAR) and two parameters (PS, SAR), respectively, with the most optimal value of generalization ability (GA) close to unity (between 1 and 0.98). Moreover, the results of the uncertainty analysis confirmed the prominent superiority and robustness of the ML models to produce excellent predictions with only a few physicochemical parameters as inputs. The developed ML models are relevant for predicting cost-effective irrigation water quality indices and can be applied as a DSS tool to improve water management in the Medjerda basin.

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