Exploring Machine Learning Techniques for Accurate Prediction of Methane Hydrate Formation Temperature in Brine: A Comparative Study

Abstract

Accurate estimation of formation conditions plays a pivotal role in effectively managing various processes related to hydrates, including flow assurance, deep-water drilling, and hydrate-based technology development. The formation temperature of methane hydrates in the presence of brine greatly affects the efficacy and accuracy of these processes. This work presents a comprehensive and novel comparative analysis of nine distinct machine learning models for accurate prediction of formation temperatures of methane hydrate. This study investigated the application of major machine learning (ML) algorithms including multiple linear regression (MLR), long short-term memory (LSTM), radial basis function (RBF), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), gradient boosting regression (GBR), gradient process regression (GPR), random forest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). The model accuracy was validated against a large dataset comprising of over 1000 data points with diverse range of salt concentrations. In this regard, model accuracies were compared using several metrics including R2, ARD, and AARD. The experimental results exhibited KNN algorithm to be fast-converging, accurate, and consistent over the entire range of data points with an R2 score of 0.975 and AARD of 0.385%. The results enable efficient and accurate temperature estimation with ML algorithms for multiple hydrate-related processes.