Exploring the Biological Basis of Age-Specific Return Variability of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) From the Robertson Creek Hatchery, British Columbia Using Biological or Physical Oceanographic Explanatory Variables

Abstract

Abstract:We used information about hatchery rearing and release practices for 173 releases of age 0+ smolts between 1982 and 2012, as well as time series of early marine prey biomass and predator abundance/biomass, to investigate the biological basis of agespecific return variability of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Robertson Creek Hatchery. We used survival rate as the response variable and considered the rate to be an apparent one because it is the product of the survival and maturation rates. Results of multiple regression analyses (adjusted R 2 ranging between 0.43 and 0.59) showed that Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) abundances accounted consistently for all of the explained variation in agespecific survival rate. We suggest that the persistence of the early marine (predation) effect with age shows that there is no effect of hatchery practice on age at maturity. Apparent survival rate variation was not explained when we used conventional physical oceanographic measurements (temperature, salinity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index, Northern Oscillation Index, Arctic Oscillation Index, Aleutian Low Pressure Index, Bakun Upwelling Index, timing of spring transition) in our analyses.

Quantifying impacts of harbor seal Phoca vitulina predation on juvenile Coho Salmon in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

“…In many cases, abundance time series are the only data available to infer relationships between predator and prey. Although correlative approaches are commonly used in ecology and fisheries to establish an association between predators and their prey (Worm and Myers 2003;Mäntyniemi et al 2012;Tanasichuk and Emmonds 2016), the strongest analyses demonstrate both a strong correlation and a credible mechanistic explanation (Hilborn 2016) that is supported by estimates of predator consumption rates.…”