Exploring the Direct and Spillover Effects of Aging on Green Total Factor Productivity in China: A Spatial Econometric Approach

Abstract

China is a rapidly aging nation. Therefore, it is a matter of urgency to address the challenges of aging in China and to coordinate the relationships between population aging, environmental issues, and socio-economic development. However, few empirical studies have thus far analyzed the impact of aging on green total factor productivity (GTFP) in China. Hence, this study employs a global Malmquist–Luenberger index method (GMLI) to calculate the GTFP scores of 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2018. We apply spatiotemporal analysis methods to identify the variations of population aging and GTFP scores and then build a spatial econometric model to examine the impact of population aging on GTFP. Our study findings are as follows. (1) Whereas at the beginning of the 21st century, provinces with deep aging were mostly situated in the east, the population aging issue in China is now spreading across the entire country. (2) From a dynamic perspective, the overall GTFP growth rate in China during the sample period depicts a U-shaped structure with time. (3) Results of the spatial Durbin model show that the impact of population aging in a given region on GTFP is negative, but the spatial spillover effect of aging in neighboring regions on GTFP in a given region is positive, resulting in the loss of younger local labor forces in some provinces due to low birth rates and migration to neighboring regions. Finally, to cope with a growing aging population and to possibly eliminate the negative impacts of population aging on high-quality sustainable development, the government should promote the establishment of the old-age security system; increased investment in R & D and wide use of advanced technology should also be urgently encouraged.

Financial Technology Development and Green Total Factor Productivity

“…Green total factor productivity (GTFP), which takes environmental factors into account, is an important indicator of the quality of economic development in a country or region [4]. As resource and environmental constraints become increasingly tight and ecological carrying capacity approaches saturation, a country or region can only achieve green and sustainable development by transforming to endogenous growth that relies on GTFP [5].…”

“…In recent years, with the profound changes in the international market environment and domestic factor endowment conditions, the previous high-input, high-consumption, and high-pollution extensive development is unsustainable, and the economic development model urgently needs to transform "rough" development with an emphasis on factor inputs into "high-quality" development that integrates environmental protection and economic efficiency improvement [3]. Green total factor productivity (GTFP), which takes Sustainability 2023, 15, 10309 2 of 28 into account the improvement of ecological and economic efficiency, coincides with the concept of high-quality economic development and has become an important tool to improve the quality of economic development [4]. In simple terms, GTFP refers to the efficiency level of an economic system in utilizing production factors while considering environmental factors.…”

“…In simple terms, GTFP refers to the efficiency level of an economic system in utilizing production factors while considering environmental factors. By incorporating environmental benefits into the calculation of total factor productivity, it reflects the performance of the economy in environmental protection and sustainable resource utilization [4]. Enhancing GTFP is of paramount importance in achieving high-quality economic development, promoting the transition to a green economy, and facilitating sustainable development in China.…”