Exploring the Dynamic Link Between Trade Openness, External Debt, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges and Considerations

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between trade openness, external debt, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the period from 1990 to 2023. The research examines how trade openness and external debt impact regional economic performance by employing Panel Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques utilizing the pool mean group and mean group estimator’s approach. The analysis reveals that while trade openness does not stimulate economic growth, external debt similarly has significant challenges, often hindering long-term development prospects within Sub-Saharan African countries. The findings underscore the importance of managing debt sustainably and aligning trade policies with growth-enhancing strategies. Additionally, human capital and institutional quality are essential endogenous growth factors that significantly influence economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study recommends that while trade openness alone may not directly drive economic growth, its benefits can be amplified by complementary strategies such as investing in human capital, technological adoption, and industrial policy. The study concludes with policy recommendations to enhance economic resilience and foster sustainable growth, such as attracting foreign direct investment, combined with infrastructure development and sound fiscal management.