Exploring the Evolution of Drought Characteristics in Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract

In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The region was divided into six zones using Spatial “K”luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method, and run theory was applied to characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test applied to SPEI indicate prevailing significant negative trends (dryer conditions) in all the zones. Balochistan experienced its most severe droughts in the 1960s and around 2000. The effects of climate change are also evident in the fact that all the long duration droughts occurred after 1960. Moreover, the number of droughts identified by 3-month SPEI showed a significant increase after 1960 for all six zones. The same trend was found in the 12-month SPEI but for only three zones.

Droughts over Pakistan: possible cycles, precursors and associated mechanisms

“…For instance, Khan et al (2020) provided an understanding and potential of drought prediction models in Pakistan by machine learning techniques (Khan et al 2020). Jamro et al (2020) explored the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based Spatio-temporal variability of drought characteristics in Balochistan province as well as in the entire region of Pakistan (Jamro et al 2019;Jamro et al 2020). Qaiser et al, (2021) presented a study about the evaluation of seasonal droughts using a composite drought index in Northern Punjab.…”

Towards Understanding Variability in Droughts in Response to Extreme Climate Conditions over the Different Agro-Ecological Zones of Pakistan

“…The SPI [33] showed a negative trend in Baluchistan from 1975 to 2010 [34]. A study that used SPEI found that the Baluchistan region had a negative SPEI value, indicating the intensified drought during 1902-2015 [35]. Ghani et al (2018) concluded that SPI exhibited a significant negative trend in Balakot and a positive trend in Parachinar using met station data [36].…”

Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan

“…The province is facing a limited amount of precipitation along with considerable changes in temperature (Naz et al 2020). If these conditions prolong, it can make this land extremely prone to severe droughts shortly (Ashraf and Routray 2013;Jamro et al 2020). Total annual precipitation is meager, owing to dry summer (Zahid and Rasul 2010).…”

“…Impacts of changing climate make the arid region of the province more vulnerable to frequently witnessed seasonal droughts (Jamro et al 2020 ). An increase in surface temperature coupled with low average rainfalls is likely to cause seasonal shifts and disturb weather parameters (Ashraf and Routray 2015 ; Naz et al 2020 ; Yokomatsu et al 2020 ).…”