Exploring the future hydropower production of a run-of-river type plant in the source region of the Tigris Basin (Türkiye) under CMIP6 scenarios

Abstract

This assessment presents a framework for exploring the changing climate impacts on the energy production capacity of a run-of-river type plant, using the Basoren Weir and Hydropower Plant (HPP) as a case study. The Basoren Project is planned considering historical streamflow records in the source region of the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (ETRB), which is a prominent hotspot warming at nearly double the global average rate. The quantification is built on precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature datasets from 24 Global Climate Models (GCMs) belonging to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the moderate- and high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, as well as the CMIP6 historical experiment (HEXP) scenario. The distribution mapping method is employed to adjust the raw GCM datasets for systematic biases. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is preferred in producing daily runoff time series for the bias-adjusted simulations of each GCM over the historical (1988-2009) and three future (2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099) periods. The ramifications of the changing climate on the Basoren HPP's energy production capacity are assessed based on the medians of the operational results reached for each GCM under the future societal development scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, considering the medians achieved under the HEXP scenario as the reference case. The results indicate potential reductions in the mean yearly energy production of the Basoren HPP by 7.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and by 5.8%, 8.0%, and 17.3% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the periods 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively. While declining spillway releases are expected to partly offset the impact of decreasing streamflow rates on energy production, the shift from a snow-dominated to a rain-dominated hydrologic regime necessitates re-optimizing the power capacities of the ETRB plants to maintain effective use of hydropower potential.