Exploring the hypothetical limits to a nuclear and renewable electricity future

Abstract

SUMMARYThis article evaluates whether the world can transition to a future global electricity system powered entirely by nuclear power plants, wind turbines, solar panels, geothermal facilities, hydroelectric stations, and biomass generators by 2030. It begins by explaining the scenario method employed for predicting future electricity generation, drawn mostly from tools used by the International Energy Agency. The article projects that the world would need to build about 7744 Gigawatts (GW) of installed electricity capacity by 2030 to provide 37.2 thousand terawatt-hours (TWh). Synthesizing data from the primary literature, the article argues that meeting such a projection with nuclear and renewable power stations will be difficult. If constructed using commercially available and state-of-the-art nuclear and renewable power stations today, the capital cost would exceed $40 trillion, anticipated negative externalities would exceed $1 trillion per year, and immense strain would be placed on land, water, material, and human resources. Even if nuclear and renewable power technologies were much improved, trillions of dollars of investment would still be needed, millions of hectares of land set aside, quadrillions of gallons of water used, and material supplies of aluminum, concrete, silicon, and steel heavily utilized or exhausted. Because of these constraints, the only true path towards a more sustainable electricity system appears to be reducing demand for electricity and consuming less of it.

Balancing safety with sustainability: assessing the risk of accidents for modern low-carbon energy systems

“…They are more materials-intensive, on a per-megawatt basis, than all other types of electricity supply, and they involve massive reservoirs and facilities handling immense amounts of water. 32 There are elements of construction unique to dams, such as the need to build coffer dams, excavate large amounts of subsurface rocks, and meet multiple purposes with the same project (such as a dam that simultaneously provides flood control, irrigation, and electricity). 33 A second reason is that despite the size and complexity of dams, there is only so much engineers and designers can predict-meaning natural disasters, changes in geology, and even poor maintenance can all lead to catastrophic failures.…”

An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure

“…In fact, the hydroelectric projects included in our dataset confirm that unexpected price increases, inflation, unfavorable currency devaluation compared to the U.S. dollar (which we converted to), tax changes, and political events are common and significant causes of overruns. One reason why dams can take so long to build is because they are more materials-intensive, on a per-megawatt basis, than all other types of electricity supply [26]. The World Commission on Dams has also argued that there are elements of construction unique to dams, such as the need to build coffer dams, excavate large amounts of subsurface rocks, and meet multiple purposes with the same project (such as a dam that simultaneously provides flood control, irrigation, and electricity) [27].…”