Exploring the Next Wave of Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology: The Overlooked Potential of Scenario Analysis

Abstract

Blockchain is predicted to disrupt industries, economies, and societies. The properties of distributed ledgers allow the creation of immutable data structures that facilitate shared access in real time and enable a plethora of innovative applications. However, blockchain is not a uniform technology but rather a bundle of evolving components whose implications are notoriously hard to predict. At present, it is not clear how current trends will evolve, with technical evolution, legislation, and public policy being three contingency factors that make ongoing disruptive transformations particularly hard to predict. In light of blockchain’s potential disruptive impact, it is surprising that scenario analysis has hitherto been largely ignored in academic research. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce the technique, clarify several misconceptions, and provide examples illustrating how this method can help to overcome the limitations of existing technology impact research. We conclude that if applied correctly, scenario analysis represents the ideal tool to rigorously explore uncertain future developments and to create a comprehensive foundation for future research.

Delving into and Implementing Blockchain-related Technologies

“…Crop Insurance: in agriculture, the implementation of smart contracts uniquely helps farmers purchase crop insurance and claim compensation as required by insurance companies. So far, this has been a labour-intensive and time-consuming process for both the farmer and the farmers insurance company [10]. Unpredictable and changeable weather makes it difficult to accurately assess and quickly report damage.…”

Classical Strategic Planning May not Be Adequate for a Fast-changing IT Environment

“…Over the years, scenario analysis has seen some limitations and challenges. One challenge is the inaccuracy and subjectiveness in its assessment of event probabilities [24], which will pose even more diversions in fast-changing ICT environment. Another challenge is that because analysts are part of the business's environment, they may influence the context in the process of analysing and making the predictions less accurate [25].…”

Blockchain for Doping Control Applications in Sports: A Conceptual Approach

“…The research strategy can be visualized in the form of a workflow presented in Figure 2. This research can be categorized as a scenario analysis, per the definitions discussed in [73]. The research strategy until the present has been strongly focused in conducting literature review, which followed a logical sequence.…”

“…Future Internet 2022, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 26 can be defined as a conceptualization stage, where the outcomes correspond to the contributions highlighted in this paper. The future scope of research includes a technical validation, simulating the conceptual design [14,74], and the quantification of the impact of this research to the AD/sports ecosystem by the application of a Delphi study [73,75]. The future research scope is expected to create two additional contributions to be submitted for future publication.…”