Exploring the Relationship Between Population Changes and Logistics Development: An Analysis Based on the Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Population and Logistics Coupling Coordination

Abstract

In recent years, China’s population growth rate is slowing, and birth rates are declining. The impact of changes in population size and structure on logistics development has raised important concerns. The coupling coordination between population and logistics has significant implications for the sustainable development of regional economies. This paper analyzes the relationship between population changes and logistics development from the perspective of the spatiotemporal evolution of their coupling coordination. First, based on population and logistics data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2003 to 2022, a comprehensive evaluation indicator system is established to assess the population and logistics development levels across these provinces. Second, a coupling coordination degree model is constructed to explore the coupling coordination relationship between population changes and logistics development. Methods such as kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis are employed to analyze the temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the two subsystems. The results indicate that: (1) From 2003 to 2022, the population and logistics development levels in 31 provinces exhibited an upward trend. The growth rate of logistics development level scores exceeds that of population scores; (2) During the study period, the coupling coordination degree between population and logistics in most provinces shows a year-on-year increase, and notable spatial differences exhibit a decreasing trend; (3) There exists a significant positive spatial correlation in the coupling coordination degree between population and logistics across the 31 provinces, and local spatial autocorrelation is primarily characterized by ‘high–high’ and ‘low–low’ clustering distributions. Based on the above results, we propose policy recommendations to promote the coordinated development of population and logistics.