Exploring urban growth–climate change–flood risk nexus in fast growing cities

Abstract

This study looks at the nexus between urban growth, climate change, and flood risk in Doha, Qatar, a hot-spot, climate change region that has experienced unprecedented urban growth during the last four decades. To this end, this study overviews the main stages of Doha’s urban growth and influencing climatic factors during this period. A physically-based hydrological model was then built to simulate surface runoff and quantify flood risk. Finally, the Pearson correlation was used to verify the potential nexus between flood risk, climate change, and urban growth. Surveying showed that, between 1984 and 2020, urban areas grew by 777%, and bare lands decreased by 54.7%. In addition, Doha witnessed various climatic changes with a notable increase in air temperature (+ 8.7%), a decrease in surface wind speed (− 19.5%), and a decrease in potential evapotranspiration losses (− 33.5%). Growth in urban areas and the perturbation of climatic parameters caused runoff to increase by 422%, suggesting that urban growth contributed more than climatic parameters. Pearson correlation coefficient between flood risk and urban growth was strong (0.83) and significant at p < 0.05. Flood risk has a strong significant positive (negative) correlation with air temperature (wind speed) and a moderate positive (negative) correlation with precipitation (potential evapotranspiration). These results pave the way to integrate flood risk reduction measures in local urban development and climate change adaptation plans.

Flood Hazard Zoning of Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia, Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as Compared to Sensitivity Analysis

“…Floods cause serious harm to people and adversely afect socioeconomic development around the world, especially in urban areas where the high risks of fooding are the consequences of urbanization and industrialization [11][12][13][14][15].…”

“…Floods cause serious harm to people and adversely affect socioeconomic development around the world, especially in urban areas where the high risks of flooding are the consequences of urbanization and industrialization [ 11 – 15 ]. The World Bank report [ 16 ] states that over the last two decades, floods and droughts—two of the most devastating consequences of the climate crisis—have affected 3 billion people, with staggering costs in human suffering and economic loss.…”

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“…In recent years, with the accelerated process of urbanization, the increasing prominence of issues such as the hardening of surface roads, destruction of natural water systems, and inadequate capacity of stormwater drainage networks becomes evident. The accelerated urbanization serves as the cause, while the hardening of surface roads, destruction of natural water systems, and inadequate capacity of stormwater drainage networks represent the resulting effects [1][2][3][4] .…”

Comparative Analysis of the McDa and Gfi Methods in Determining Flood-Prone Areas in Jatinangor District, Sumedang

“…However, the high occurrence of floods may cause high losses in total. (Ajjur and Al-Ghamdi 2022;Romali and Yusop 2021) Floods can be caused by a variety of factors, both natural and human-induced. The severity and extent of flooding can vary depending on the specific circumstances of each event.…”