Export Diversification and Growth in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation from 1972 to 2015

Abstract

This paper addresses three issues (a) it attempts to estimate whether product and geographical export diversification has contributed to GDP growth during the 1972-2015 period, (b) identify the determinants of export diversification during this period and (c) ascertain whether a structural break in the export diversification-GDP growth relationshi p has occurred after 2000, since when policy of liberalization has been pursued. We find a significant though modest positive association between export diversification and GDP growth during 1972-2015 and some evidence that this relationshi p though remaining statistically significant, however, it somewhat weakened during the liberalization period 2000-2015. We also find that private sector credit and human capital growth and favorable movements in Pakistan's aggregate terms of trade are negatively associated with product export diversification. Export diversification is currently a policy priority; however, the government's emphasis has been geographical-not product-export diversification. Our estimations show no positive significant relationshi p between geographical export diversification and GDP growth. We therefore suggest that incentives should be provided to induce Pakistani exporters to attempt to penetrate global value chain in product areas in which they already have a presence by linking their business strategies to carefully selected leading global market players.

Export diversification and economic growth in Bangladesh

“…The study employs the ARDL bounds test to cointegration approach and established that if Algeria moved on from the dominance of its hydrocarbon industry and diversified its exports, it will lead to long run economic growth. Siddiqui (2018) inspected the role of commodities export diversification and geographical export diversification on GDP growth in Pakistan for the duration of 1972-2015. The study used the ARDL approach and dynamic OLS approach to approximate the long term dynamic relationship.…”

İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı

“…2014;Herzer ve Nowak-Lehmann, 2006;Hesse, 2008;Hodey vd. 2015;Imbs ve Wacziarg, 2003;Lederman ve Maloney, 2003;Misztal, 2011;Siddiqui, 2018). Literatürdeki bu son dönem yoğun çalışmalara rağmen ihracat çeşitliliği ve büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye özelinde inceleyen çalışmalar oldukça sınırlı sayıdadır (Acaravcı ve Kargı, 2015;Akar ve Ay, 2018;Çeviker ve Taş, 2011;Değer, 2010).…”

Analysis of Pakistan Trade Policies in the Context of Export Diversification

“…The authors used HHI index for measuring the export diversification. Siddiqui (2018) estimated the effect of export diversification, both product and geographical, on economic growth for Pakistan. Author used HHI index to measure both type of diversification.…”