Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia

Khachatryan, Gor A.; Grigoryan, Aleksandr

doi:10.1080/10168737.2020.1750045

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The substantial influence of real exchange rates, evident in this study, contributes significantly to addressing findings in prior studies that failed to establish a clear relationship between exchange rates and international trade. For instance, the studies [12,14,16,18] reported no significant impact of exchange rates on trade in various contexts. This indicates a fundamental unresolved ambiguity in these studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the literature also acknowledges challenges in identifying clear and consistent effects of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade. The studies [14][15][16][17][18][19]57,58] reveal the complexity of this relationship, with varying results across different contexts and periods.…”

Section: Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, they may lead to resource misallocation, prompting companies to adjust production and investment based on shortterm exchange rate fluctuations rather than long-term fundamentals, thereby hampering productivity and economic growth [9]. Despite studies suggesting positive effects under specific conditions [10][11][12][13], others have faced challenges in identifying clear effects [14][15][16][17][18][19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[15] utilized the error correction model (ECM) method, ref. [18] employed the instrumental variable-generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) method, and ref. [19] used the fixed effect (FE) and random effect (RE) methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Trade Balance Data Using Feature Important Evaluation Methods

Kim,

2024

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This study delves into the intricate relationship between fluctuations in the real exchange rate and the trade balance, situated within the framework of a ‘two-country’ trade theory model. Despite a wealth of prior research on the impact of exchange rates on international trade, the precise extent of this influence remains a contentious issue. To bridge this gap, our research adopts a pioneering approach, employing three distinct artificial intelligence-based influence measurement methods: Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI), Permutation Importance Measurement (PIM), and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP). These sophisticated techniques provide a nuanced and differentiated perspective, enabling specific and quantitative measurements of the real exchange rate’s impact on the trade balance. The outcomes derived from the application of these innovative methods shed light on the substantial contribution of the real exchange rate to the trade balance. Notably, the real exchange rate (RER) emerges as the second most influential factor within the ‘two-country’ trade model. This empirical evidence, drawn from a panel dataset of 78 nations over the period 1992–2021, addresses crucial gaps in the existing literature, offering a finer-grained understanding of how real exchange rates shape international trade dynamics. Importantly, our study implies that policymakers should recognize the pivotal role of the real exchange rate as a key determinant of trade flow.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%