Export surges

Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.06.008

Cited by 100 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…As is evident from the table, including other controls does not make much of a difference to the results, and RER continues to have a positive and significant coefficient. Results also show that the volatility of RER has a negative effect on the probability of an export surge, consistent with Freund and Pierola (2012). Experiencing a currency crisis in the recent past does not affect the probability one way or the other but its effect is positive and marginally significant for the export surge in traditional services.…”

Section: The Real Exchange Rate and Export Surgessupporting

confidence: 75%

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The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

Eichengreen

Gupta

2013

SSRN Journal

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We consider the determinants of exports of services, distinguishing between modern and traditional services. We consider both the growth of export volumes and so-called export surgesperiods of rapid sustained export growth. We ask whether the determinants of export growth rates and surges differ between merchandise, traditional services and modern services and whether developing countries are different. Our findings confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. We find that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than exports of goods; it is especially strong for exports of modern services. While the evidence of differential effects between advanced and developing countries is weaker, our results nonetheless suggest that as developing countries shift from exporting primarily commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services in the course of their development, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

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Section: The Real Exchange Rate and Export Surgessupporting

confidence: 75%

“…As Freund and Pierola (2012) have shown in their work on merchandise trade, surges provide additional identification. They are instances when export performance and their determinants are changing radically.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

Eichengreen

Gupta

2013

SSRN Journal

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“…10 Battaile, Chisik and Onder (2014) develop a model in which the Dutch Disease is heightened by inequality in the distribution of resource rents. 11 Freund and Pierola (2012) find that surges in manufacturing exports (defined as significant increases that are sustained for at least seven years) are preceded by large depreciations in the real exchange rate that leave it significantly undervalued, which is consistent with a Dutch Disease effect. Still, it is unclear whether the Dutch Disease reduces economic growth; the meta-analysis by Magud and Sosa (2010) finds little convincing evidence of a growth-reducing effect.…”

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confidence: 60%

What Do We Know About Economic Diversification in Oil-Producing Countries?

Ross

2017

SSRN Journal

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The programme is funded by the UK Government, through UK Aid. Over the course of five years, EEG will commission rigorous research exploring the links between energy economic growth, and poverty reduction in low-income countries. This evidence will be specifically geared to meet the needs of decision makers and enable the development of large-scale energy systems that support sustainable, inclusive growth in low income countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.The EEG Working Paper Series showcases the 18 State-of-Knowledge papers produced in Phase 1 of the EEG programme. These papers address gaps in knowledge and data in six critical themes related to energy and economic growth: the links between electricity supply and growth, finance and governance aspects, large scale renewables, sustainable urbanization and energy efficiency, the role of extractives, and design of energy systems. Cross-cutting themes of gender, climate change, and data are also addressed in dedicated papers.The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the UK Government's official policies. This paper is posted at the eScholarship Repository, University of California. Copyright © 2017 by the author(s). Abstract: countries dependent on oil and mineral exports are often advised to diversify their economies, yet surprisingly little is known about how this can be done. This paper reviews the recent literature on diversification in resource-dependent states and suggests it has been constrained by missing and inconsistent data, and a reliance on diversification measures that are relatively uninformative for resource-rich states. It then uses an improved measure of export concentration from Papageorgiou and Spatafora to document three empirical patterns over the last half-century: the divergence between oil-producing states and non-oil states; the reconcentration of exports in most oil and mineral producing states since 1998, caused by the boom in commodity prices; and the heterogeneity of the oil producers, marked by greater diversification in Latin America and Southeast Asia, mixed performances in the Middle East, and greater concentration in Africa and the former Soviet Union. While change in the former Soviet Union was spurred by large new discoveries, the diversification failure of all oilproducing states in both North and sub-Saharan Africa is striking, and stands in contrast to the region's non-oil producers. The paper concludes with a research agenda for deepening our understanding of this issue.

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“…al. (2005), and Freund and Pierola (2012). For historical analyses of specific cases in Latin America, see Frenkel andRapetti (2008 and.…”

Section: The Rer In Growth Regressionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

12. The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels

Rapetti¹

2016

Macroeconomics and Development

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A recent body of empirical research has documented a strong association between the level and volatility of the RER and economic growth. This research has relied on a variety of econometric techniques applied to large cross-country data sets. Although the documented positive effects of both RER competitiveness and stability on growth appear to be robust, it is still unclear what the mechanisms driving these associations are. Several explanations have been proposed, but their theoretical examination and empirical validation is still in an infant stage. I analyze the mechanisms that have been proposed and evaluate them in light of the documented empirical evidence. My reading is that two of them adjust to the empirical findings best: the financial globalization channel and the tradable-led growth channel. I conclude that since these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, both might have some explanatory power. JEL: O24, F43, F31, O11.

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Export surges

Cited by 100 publications

References 31 publications

The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?

What Do We Know About Economic Diversification in Oil-Producing Countries?

12. The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels

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