Exposure of Rural Communities to Climate Variability and Change: Case Studies from Argentina, Colombia and Canada

Abstract

This paper presents results from studies of exposure to climate change and extreme events in the Mendoza River Basin in western Argentina, the Chinchiná River basin in the Colombian Andes, and the Oldman River basin and Swift Current Creek watershed in the Canadian Prairies. These case studies are a major component of an international research project: "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas" (VACEA). This project is very much interdisciplinary; with social and natural science providing context and direction for research in the other realm of scholarship, producing insights that very likely would not arise from a more narrow disciplinary perspective. A large number of interviews with local actors revealed that agricultural producers and local officials recognize their high degree of exposure and sensitivity to climate variability and extreme weather events, although they generally do not associate this with climate change. Case studies of exposure demonstrate that the perceptions of the local actors are consistent with the nature of the regional hydroclimatic regimes. In all four river basins, climate variability between years and decades masks any regional expression of global climate change. These modes of periodic variability dominate the paleoclimate of past centuries and the recorded hydroclimate of recent decades. The exposure variables examined in this paper, indices of stream flow, snowpack, water excess and deficit, vary in coherence with the characteristic frequencies of large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns, specifically the ENSO and PDO. Projections of the future states of these variables require the use of climate 23 models that are able to simulate the internal variability of the climate system and the teleconnections between ocean-atmosphere oscillations and regional hydroclimate.

An assessment of historical and projected future hydro‐climatic variability and extremes over southern watersheds in the Canadian Prairies

“…In conclusion, this study has advanced understanding regarding the occurrence and atmospheric causes of hydro‐climatic variability and extremes over specific watersheds and associated communities over the southern Canadian Prairies. It has also contributed to the VACEA project, which has used these results to compare past and future Canadian climate extremes to those in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia and subsequently, to assess exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to these extremes in selected rural agricultural and indigenous communities (Sauchyn et al , ). Historical variability and extremes have caused many challenges for adaptation including the effective management of water for various sectors and preparing for/coping with the impacts of drought and excessive moisture.…”

“…This study contributes to the Canadian component of the Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas (VACEA) research project. VACEA is an interdisciplinary (social and natural sciences) and multi‐collaborative investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate extremes in rural agricultural and indigenous communities in Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia (Sauchyn et al , ). The research framework follows a vulnerability assessment model, whereby exposure and sensitivity to climate extremes and adaptive capacity are investigated for selected rural agricultural communities, and then re‐evaluated in the context of projected climate changes.…”

Limitations of Water Resources Infrastructure for Reducing Community Vulnerabilities to Extremes and Uncertainty of Flood and Drought

“…We employ a vulnerability assessment model, whereby exposure and sensitivity to climate extremes (primarily flood and drought) and adaptive capacity are investigated for selected rural agricultural communities, and then re-evaluated in the context of projected climate changes (Sauchyn et al 2016). Participatory research provides further insight via interviews and focus group meetings with local stakeholders and government officials for the assessment of community vulnerability and local governance.…”

An analysis of the performance of RCMs in simulating current climate over western Canada

“…For western Canada, seasonal and annual mean temperature and precipitation were compared, while for ten sites (see Figure ) in southern Alberta (Carway, Gleichen, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat) and southern Saskatchewan (Kindersley, Leader, Outlook, Val Marie, Swift Current and Yellow Grass) a number of indices based on daily precipitation were calculated. These ten sites were chosen so as to be close to two study watersheds, Swift Current Creek, Saskatchewan, and the Oldman River, Alberta, which are the focus of current climate scenario construction work (Sauchyn et al , ).…”