Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15–49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents’ preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women’s vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Life After Loss: A Prospective Analysis of Mortality Exposure and Unintended Fertility

“…Although the gen e sis of this lit er a ture was evi dence that a decrease in mor tal ity ush ers in lower fer til ity, demog ra phers inverted the longstand ing ques tion to ask whether an increase in mor tal ity could induce higher fer til ity-fur ther test ing the solid ity of the mor tal ityfer til ity link. For instance, research ers have exam ined largescale mor tal ity shocks to see if they elicit fer til ity change (Agadjanian and Prata 2002;Finlay 2009;Heuveline and Poch 2007;Hosseini-Chavoshi and Abbasi-Shavazi 2013;Kraehnert et al 2019;Lindstrom and Berhanu 1999;National Research Council et al 2004;Nobles et al 2015;Thiede et al 2020;Urdal and Che 2013). Ongoing con flict tends to cor respond with an ini tial decline in fer til ity, but a sub se quent rebound after the vio lence ceases (Agadjanian and Prata 2002;Heuveline and Poch 2007;Lindstrom and Berhanu 1999;Thiede et al 2020).…”

“…For instance, research ers have exam ined largescale mor tal ity shocks to see if they elicit fer til ity change (Agadjanian and Prata 2002;Finlay 2009;Heuveline and Poch 2007;Hosseini-Chavoshi and Abbasi-Shavazi 2013;Kraehnert et al 2019;Lindstrom and Berhanu 1999;National Research Council et al 2004;Nobles et al 2015;Thiede et al 2020;Urdal and Che 2013). Ongoing con flict tends to cor respond with an ini tial decline in fer til ity, but a sub se quent rebound after the vio lence ceases (Agadjanian and Prata 2002;Heuveline and Poch 2007;Lindstrom and Berhanu 1999;Thiede et al 2020). For exam ple, Heuveline and Poch (2007) doc u ment a dra matic rise in fer til ity fol low ing wide spread mor tal ity in Cambodia under the Pol Pot regime in the 1970s.…”

“…Studies have also described higher fer til ity in the wake of a cri sis as embody ing the "pro ac tive role of indi vid u als, fam i lies, and com mu ni ties" to con front an exis ten tial threat (Heuveline and Poch 2007:422). Aside from rec og ni tion that con flict could increase (unwanted) fer til ity through sex ual vio lence (Thiede et al 2020) and that women with more resources are bet ter able to delay births until conflict ceases (Agadjanian and Prata 2002), demo graphic stud ies have yet to test if mor tal ity expo sure leaves women vul ner a ble to unin tended preg nancy spe cif cally. Thus, we draw on the o ret i cal per spec tives from other lit er a tures to con sider whether net work mor tal ity could pro duce a dis junc ture between women's fer til ity desires and out comes.…”

The Family Consequences of Terrorism: The Effects of the Tokyo Subway Sarin Attack on Marital Formation and Dissolution

“…Similarly, marriage and divorce rates were higher during World War II (Stevenson and Wolfers 2007). At the individual level, armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa increases the likelihood of divorce relative to marriage (Thiede et al 2020). By contrast, the 9/11 terrorist attack and the Oklahoma City bombing decreased the number of divorce cases (Cohan et al 2009; Nakonezny et al 2004).…”

Wedding Amidst War? Armed Conflict and Female Teen Marriage in Azerbaijan

“…If women marry sooner, ceteris paribus , reasonably, their lifetime fertility will raise and contribute to population growth (Onagoruwa & Wodon, 2018 ). Anticipating similar scenarios is key for post-conflict reconstruction strategies, development, and resource allocation (Duflo, 2005 ; Thiede et al, 2020 ).…”