Extant species fail to estimate ancestral geographical ranges at older nodes in primate phylogeny

Abstract

A clade’s evolutionary history is shaped, in part, by geographical range expansion, sweepstakes dispersal and local extinction. A rigorous understanding of historical biogeography may therefore yield insights into macroevolutionary dynamics such as adaptive radiation. Modern historical biogeographic analyses typically fit statistical models to molecular phylogenies, but it remains unclear whether extant species provide sufficient signal or if well-sampled phylogenies of extinct and extant taxa are necessary to produce meaningful estimates of past ranges. We investigated the historical biogeography of Primates and their euarchontan relatives using a novel meta-analytical phylogeny of over 900 extant ( n = 419) and extinct ( n = 483) species spanning their entire evolutionary history. Ancestral range estimates for young nodes were largely congruent with those derived from molecular phylogeny. However, node age exerts a significant effect on ancestral range estimate congruence, and the probability of congruent inference dropped below 0.5 for nodes older than the late Eocene, corresponding to the origins of higher-level clades. Discordance was not observed in analyses of extinct taxa alone. Fossils are essential for robust ancestral range inference and biogeographic analyses of extant clades originating in the deep past should be viewed with scepticism without them.

Inaccurate fossil placement does not compromise tip-dated divergence times

“…Phylogenetic trees with optimal levels of fossil sampling are key to reconstructing evolutionary history (Quantal & Marshall 2010, Slater & Harmon 2013, Rothwell et al 2018), and have illuminated the diversification of clades in ways unattainable by studies focusing only on living representatives (Slater 2013, Finarelli & Goswami 2013, Garwood et al 2014, Betancur-R et al 2015, Mitchell 2015, Arcila & Tyler 2017, Vinther et al 2017, Norrell et al 2020, Lloyd & Slater 2021, Mongiardino Koch & Thompson 2021, Wisniewski et al 2022). The macroevolutionary potential of the fossil record is best unlocked through the use of tip-dated methods of inference that place fossil and living taxa in a common time-calibrated phylogenetic framework, built using mechanistic models of diversification and sampling, and informed by all available sources of information (Ronquist et al 2012a, Gavryushkina et al 2014, Zhang et al 2016, Heath et al 2017, Warnock & Wright 2021).…”

Using developmental rules to align microevolution with macroevolution

“…In total, we compiled a sample of 6558 individuals distributed among 480 species, divided between 232 extant and 248 extinct species. To evaluate the evolution of these traits on a phylogenetic framework, we used the most comprehensive phylogeny available that included both living and fossil primate species 45 . Our sample covered all genera and 52.98 % of the species diversity included in 45 , spanning the full 75 mya of the group’s evolution.…”

“…To evaluate the evolution of these traits on a phylogenetic framework, we used the most comprehensive phylogeny available that included both living and fossil primate species 45 . Our sample covered all genera and 52.98 % of the species diversity included in 45 , spanning the full 75 mya of the group’s evolution.…”

“…the one implied by the ICM) lead to a smoother transition between micro- and macroevolutionary scales than biologically naïve spaces, which are here represented by linear measurements or areas designed to describe the form of the molar row (Fig S1). We apply this framework to an expansive dataset of both extant (232 taxa) and extinct (248 taxa) species summarized from more than 250 different sources (see Supplementary Material), integrated with a newly published comprehensive phylogenetic context (51).…”

“…This extensive availability of a comprehensive combination of paleontological and neontological data enables unprecedented power to evaluate evolutionary dynamics through deep-time using data-hungry phylogenetic comparative methods [42][43][44] . We apply our framework to an expansive dataset of both extant (232 taxa) and extinct (248 taxa) species summarized from more than 250 different sources (see Supplementary Material), integrated with a newly published comprehensive phylogenetic context 45 . To address our hypotheses, we use a model-fitting approach based on information theory (Bayesian Information Criteria) and parsimony (minimizing model complexity/parameter number).…”