Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Monni, Suvi; Syri, Sanna; Pipatti, Riitta; Savolainen, Ilkka

doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8_9

Cited by 16 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…See, for example, Li et al (2001), Leip et al (2008), Del Grosso et al (2005) and ButterbachBahl and Werner (2005) for model simulations in China, Europe, the United States, and Germany, respectively. This was also confirmed by the detailed analysis in Finland by Monni et al (2007) who found that the yearly variation of N 2 O emissions in Finland was relatively small (−104 to +171%) and suggested that climate-specific models should be developed that take soil properties into account (Freibauer 2003;Leip 2005b).…”

Section: Uncertainty Of the Emission Factor For N 2 O Emissions From supporting

confidence: 61%

“…Furthermore there is particular academic interest in comparing GHG inventory uncertainties across countries (e.g., Keizer et al 2007; Monni et al 2004;Rypdal and Winiwarter 2001), or the results of different methodologies used in the UA (e.g., Olsthoorn and Pielaat 2003;Ramiréz et al 2006;Winiwarter 2007). It is now recognized that uncertainty estimates will be used to prove the achievement of GHG reduction commitments Monni et al 2007;Nahorski et al 2007) or to play a critical role in deciding on reduction projects (e.g., Grassi et al 2008). Yet, while the quality of the GHG inventories has significantly improved in the last few years and is now generally accepted to be of comparable standard and quality (Leip et al 2005), the estimates of the uncertainty are far from being comparable and are spread over a large quality range.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While there are several comparative studies on UA in GHG inventories, they are mainly in the framework of an improvement of national approach for UA (see, e.g., Winiwarter (2007) for Austria, Monni et al (2007) for Finland, Ramiréz et al (2006) for the Netherlands; Rypdal and Flugsrud (2001) for Norway, Passant (2003) for the United Kingdom). In this paper we present a compilation of uncertainty estimates of member states of the European Union (EU) for the agriculture sector.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe

Leip

2010

Climatic Change

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The greenhouse gas inventory of the European Communities and its estimation of the uncertainty is built from 15 individual and independent greenhouse gas inventories. This presents a particular challenge and is possible only if homogeneous information is available for all member states and if a proper evaluation of correlation between member states is performed. To this end, we present a methodology that estimates a quantitative measure for the aggregated Tier-level as well as the uncertainty for the main categories in the agriculture sector. In contrast to the approach suggested in the IPCC guidelines, which uses uncertainty estimates for activity data and emissions factors for each source category, the method presented uses quantitative information from individual parameters used in the inventory calculations, in combination with a well defined procedure to aggregate the information. Not surprisingly, N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils are found to dominate the uncertainty. The results demonstrate the importance of correlation, if uncertainties are combined for the whole of Europe. The biggest challenge seems to be to conceptually harmonize the uncertainty estimates for the activity data (which tend to be underestimated) and emission factors (which tend to be overestimated).

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Section: Uncertainty Of the Emission Factor For N 2 O Emissions From supporting

confidence: 61%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe

Leip

2010

Climatic Change

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“…Emissions trading among Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will start in 2008. Although Parties are responsible for estimating and reporting uncertainties in their emission estimates to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Marrakesh Accords, which prepare for the effective participation of developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol process, did not set any bounds for uncertainty in tradable emissions (Monni, Syri, Pipatti, & Savolainen, 2007). We have no evidence that the emission targets set by the Protocol are sufficient, either for an individual country or for the world as a whole (Tietenberg, 1985).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

Bartoszczuk

Horabik

2007

Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus

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We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.

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“…The estimate of the total emissions by a party is calculated from an inventory of emissions from every contributing activity, including absorption by sinks. These are, however, highly uncertain, see (Winiwarter 2004;Monni et al 2007). Moreover, uncertainties of inventoriesx differ among different activities both in terms of the range and distributions.…”

Section: Problem Formulationmentioning

confidence: 98%

Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

Nahorski

Horabik

2010

Climatic Change

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Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4-5): 539-558, 2007; Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47-52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.

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Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Cited by 16 publications

References 19 publications

Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe

Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in Europe

Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

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