Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits

Bohner, Teresa; Diez, Jeffrey M.

doi:10.1111/ele.13396

Cited by 35 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Our study adds to a growing body of literature on this subject (Holt, 2020, and references therein). For instance, a similar lack of correlation has been found for European trees (Csergo et al., 2017, using matrix projection models) and for western North American species along moisture gradients (Bohner & Diez, 2019). Local interactions are hypothesised to preclude species distribution models from predicting population growth rates when fitted to macroclimate data (Csergo et al., 2017).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Climate‐induced variation in the demography of 14 tree species is not sufficient to explain their distribution in eastern North America

Squin

Boulangeat²,

Gravel

2020

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim Dynamic range models are proposed to investigate species distributions and to project range shifts under climate change. They are based upon the Hutchinsonian niche theory, specifying that the occurrence of a species in an environmental space should be limited to positions where the intrinsic growth rate is positive. Evaluating population growth rate is, however, difficult for physiologically structured populations, such as forest stands, owing to size‐induced individual variation in performance. Therefore, we still have a limited understanding of which aspect of tree demography contributes the most to their geographical range limit. We develop an index of demographic performance for size‐structured populations and study its variation across a climatic gradient. We then investigate the relationship between the demographic performance index and species distribution. Location North America (57–124° W, 26–52° N). Time period 1963–2010. Major taxa studied Fourteen tree species. Methods We represent forest dynamics with a size‐structured population model and neighbourhood competition with the perfect plasticity approximation. We then derive the lifetime reproduction per individual, R0, in the absence of density dependence. Using forest inventory data, we assess how tree demography for each species varies with climate. We test the model by comparing R0 and the probability of occurrence within species ranges. Results We find that both growth and mortality rates vary across species distributions, but climate explains little of the observed variation. Individual size and neighbourhood competition are the primary explanatory variables of tree demography. Finally, we find that R0 relates weakly to the probability of occurrence, with no systematic decline in population growth rates towards the range limits. Main conclusions Spatial and size‐induced variation in tree growth and mortality do not explain range limits and are insufficient to enable an understanding of tree dynamics. We propose that phenomena perceived mostly at the metapopulation scale should also be considered.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Climate‐induced variation in the demography of 14 tree species is not sufficient to explain their distribution in eastern North America

Squin

Boulangeat²,

Gravel

2020

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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“…Sections are defined as an aggregate of geologic, soil, and vegetative properties and may include qualitative descriptors that do not continuously vary along grids (McNab et al 2007). While major improvements to modeling forest mortality may involve species-specific parameterizations, variation in demographic rates across space and between tree populations may present an additional challenge that may require detailed knowledge of tree eco-physiology (Bohner and Diez 2020).…”

Section: Factors Most Important To Recent and Future Forest Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree mortality in western U.S. forests forecasted using forest inventory and Random Forest classification

et al. 2021

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Climate change is projected to significantly affect the vulnerability of forests across the western United States to wildfires, insects, disease, and droughts. Here, we provide recent mortality estimates for large trees for 53 species across 48 ecological sections using an analysis of 23,215 Forest Inventory plots and a Random Forest classification model. Models were also used to predict mortality in future FIA inventories under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. Model performance indicated species identity as the most important predictor of mortality under both current and future scenarios, with contributions from climate and soil variables. Our results show relatively high levels of recent mortality in the Middle and Southern Rocky Mountains driven by high mortality in Populus tremuloides, Pinus contorta, Pinus albicaulis, and Abies lasiocarpa. Low levels of mortality were observed in several species, with <1% annual mortality observed throughout all other sections. Future mortality was predicted to increase significantly for most species and correlated well with recent mortality at the species level, but not at the plot level. These results suggest that future attempts to model or predict widespread forest mortality would benefit from more research on vulnerable species and that significant mortality events in some species may not be important for dynamics across all systems.

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“…Functional traits have been used as proxies for species’ dispersal abilities (Greene and Johnson 1993; Thompson et al, 2011), environmental tolerances (Loehle, 1998; Bohner & Diez, 2020) or competitiveness (Kunstler et al, 2016). Specific functional traits have been linked to commonness and rarity on both local and large scales (see Table 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different sets of traits explain abundance and distribution patterns of European plants at different spatial scales

Sporbert

Welk

Seidler

et al. 2021

J Vegetation Science

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Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits

Cited by 35 publications

References 89 publications

Climate‐induced variation in the demography of 14 tree species is not sufficient to explain their distribution in eastern North America

Climate‐induced variation in the demography of 14 tree species is not sufficient to explain their distribution in eastern North America

Tree mortality in western U.S. forests forecasted using forest inventory and Random Forest classification

Different sets of traits explain abundance and distribution patterns of European plants at different spatial scales

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