External validation of clinical risk prediction score for elderly treated with endovascular thrombectomy

Abstract

Background and aim The thrombectomy in the elderly prediction score (TERPS) for functional outcome after anterior circulation endovascular therapy (EVT) in patients ≥ 80 years was recently developed. The aim of this study was to assess predictors of functional outcome in the elderly and validate the prediction model. Methods Consecutive patients treated with EVT from the Oslo Acute Reperfusion Stroke Study were evaluated for inclusion. Clinical and radiological parameters were used to calculate the TERPS, and functional outcome were assessed at 3-month follow-up. Results Out of 1028 patients who underwent EVT for acute ischemic stroke from January 2017 to July 2022, 218 (21.2%) patients ≥ 80 years with anterior ischemic stroke were included. Fair outcome, defined as modified Rankin scale ≤ 3 (mRS), was achieved in 117 (53.7%). In bivariate analyses, male sex (p 0.035), age (p 0.025), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, p < 0.001), pre-stroke mRS (p 0.002) and Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography score (ASPECTS, p 0.001) were associated with fair outcome. Significant predictors for fair outcome in regression analyses were lower pre-stroke mRS, adjusted odd ratio, (aOR) 0.67 (95% CI 0.50–0.91, p 0.01), NIHSS, aOR 0.92 (95% CI 0.87–0.97, p 0.002), and higher ASPECTS, aOR 1.22 (95% CI 1.03–1.44, p 0.023). The area under the curve (AUC) using TERPS was 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.80). Conclusions The risk prediction score TERPS showed moderate performance in this external validation. Other variables may still be included to improve the model and validation using other cohorts is recommended. Trial registration NCT06220981.