Externalizing Tacit knowledge to discern unhealthy nuclear intentions of nation states

Abstract

One of the enduring challenges in international relations with far-reaching consequences is discerning unhealthy nuclear intentions of nation states. Explicit Strategic Intelligence information available on such issues are in many cases vague, incomplete, sketchy or fragmented, rendering the process of discerning intentions reliant on tacit knowledge of experts in discerning intentions. The process of externalizing knowledge from Tacit to Explicit forms is one of the active areas of contemporary knowledge engineering research. This paper proposes a method based on Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps to objectively externalize the tacit knowledge of experts in such contexts to support better policy decision making. In order to demonstrate the methodology, the case of Iran's nuclear intentions is discussed with hypothetical expert opinion numbers.