2019
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12343-x
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Extinction debts and colonization credits of non-forest plants in the European Alps

Abstract: Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at lea… Show more

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Cited by 88 publications
(71 citation statements)
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References 63 publications
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“…The prolonged growing season can also pose considerable threat to high elevation plant species through the opening of immigration pathways for potentially stronger competitors from lower elevations (Matteodo et al, 2013). Increased drought risk of alpine plant species caused by warming has already been reported in Europe over the past century (Lamprecht et al, 2018;Rumpf et al, 2019). As revealed by the present study, a similar development seems to be ongoing in the Himalaya as well.…”
Section: Temporal Changes In the Summit Flora Between 2014 And 2018supporting
confidence: 68%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…The prolonged growing season can also pose considerable threat to high elevation plant species through the opening of immigration pathways for potentially stronger competitors from lower elevations (Matteodo et al, 2013). Increased drought risk of alpine plant species caused by warming has already been reported in Europe over the past century (Lamprecht et al, 2018;Rumpf et al, 2019). As revealed by the present study, a similar development seems to be ongoing in the Himalaya as well.…”
Section: Temporal Changes In the Summit Flora Between 2014 And 2018supporting
confidence: 68%
“…However, the highest summit (which falls in the nival zone) showed an opposite trend, as a decline of species richness was observed on this summit between 2014 and 2018. It is likely that increased competition with lower elevation plants has excluded the species originally adapted to this summit and that local extinction was higher than colonization (Rumpf et al, 2019). This is because newly arrived plant species from lower elevations are potentially stronger competitors than cold-adapted nival species and possibly outcompete these species in resource utilization (Matteodo et al, 2013;Alexander et al, 2015).…”
Section: Temporal Changes In the Summit Flora Between 2014 And 2018mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our analysis assumes species will closely track shifting isotherms, but several studies of plant and animal communities have shown that species range shifts may lag behind shifting isotherms and that such lags influence disequilibrium dynamics between colonization credits and extinction debts 6,49,50 . While there is significant variation in lags across species owing to variation in species' physiological and demographic responses, biotic interactions, and properties of the physical environment 50 , some assessments have reported significant extinction debt is looming for montane species that is more acute for endemic and cold-adapted, highelevation species 51,52 . Expanding our models to incorporate disequilibrium dynamics, lagged responses, and extinction debt in future work would be an important step to ensuring realistic forecasts of extinction risk for range-shifting species.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Global environmental changes are predicted to increase the disequilibria between current environmental conditions and those to which individuals have locally adapted. Such disequilibria might cause changes in elevational and latitudinal optima of species distribution ranges, with possible consequences in biotic homogenization and changes in biodiversity (Bertrand et al, 2011; De Frenne et al, 2013; Pulido et al, 2019; Rumpf, Hülber, Wessely, et al, 2019; Svenning & Sandel, 2013).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is therefore important to understand how the performance and survival of specimens originated from different elevations respond to altered conditions following both upward and downward shifts. Because many plant species are not able to shift fast enough along elevation to keep up with ongoing climatic changes (Rumpf, Hülber, Wessely, et al, 2019), both local adaptation and plasticity of functional traits play a relevant role when predicting species range shifts under climate change (Jump & Penuelas, 2005; Valladares et al, 2014). In general, local adaptation arises from genetic selective pressures promoting trait expressions adapted to the local environment (Kawecki & Ebert, 2004), while phenotypic plasticity represents the ability of a genotype to adjust its phenotype when exposed to different abiotic and biotic conditions without genetic variation (Ghalambor, McKay, Carroll, & Reznick, 2007; Sultan, 2000).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%