2016
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12701
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Extinction risk of North American seed plants elevated by climate and land‐use change

Abstract: Summary Climate and land‐use change are expected to substantially alter future plant species distributions leading to higher extinction rates. However, little is known about how plant species ranges, richness and phylogenetic diversity of continents will be affected by these dynamics. We address this gap here by examining the patterns of species' distributions and phylogenetic relationships for 7465 seed plant taxa in North America. An ensemble of species distribution models was used to estimate the potentia… Show more

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Cited by 96 publications
(71 citation statements)
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References 68 publications
(160 reference statements)
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“…parishii ). The loss of phylogenetic diversity is expected under some environmental change scenarios (Zhang et al., ). Fortunately, so far, this does not seem to be occurring in California.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…parishii ). The loss of phylogenetic diversity is expected under some environmental change scenarios (Zhang et al., ). Fortunately, so far, this does not seem to be occurring in California.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Therefore, these data provide useful insight about species’ climatic tolerance. For example, the climatic niche of commercial Eucalypt species was better approximated by integrating global GBIF records with native range data from the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) [32] and the extinction risk for over 7000 woody plant species was modeled from compiled GBIF, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and permanent sampling plot data [33]. We calculated a comparative niche value (hereafter ΔCN) for each species as the difference between climatic niche defined by expert-based climatic tolerance estimates and those derived from climate conditions associated with distribution data.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Estimating tree species distributions is ultimately needed in order to provide better understanding of tree diversity, a key driver of forest functioning (Paquette and Messier 2011;Pichancourt et al 2014) and forest ecosystem service provisioning (Gamfeldt et al 2013; Thompson et al 2014). Species distributions constitute, in addition, basic information required in systemat;ic conservation planning and forecast range dynamics under future climate change (Franklin 2010;Serra-Diaz et al 2012;Guisan et al 2013;Zhang et al 2017). The extent to which populations will respond to climate change is thought to depend upon variation in geographic distribution, phenotypic variation, response to CO 2 fertilization, strength of selection, fecundity, and degree of biotic interactions .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In recent years biodiversity informatics research has rapidly advanced (Graham et al 2004;Botkin et al 2007) and forest ecology has swiftly benefited from it (Ash et al 2017;Zhang et al 2017). Currently, regional forest monitoring plans are being implemented worldwide, scientific collaboration networks are being developed and large-scale data infrastructures and tools for bigdata biodiversity research and ecological studies have been developed (Franklin et al 2017).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%