Extreme climate events under global warming in Iran

Naderi, Mostafa; Saatsaz, Masoud; Behrouj Peely, Ahmad

doi:10.1080/02626667.2024.2317269

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 82 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Among these, the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) from the CMIP6 have been extensively applied in assessing climatic variables through the SDSM [13,16,19,23]. For this research, the CanESM5 dataset was chosen due to its comprehensive global coverage, open access availability, and its prevalent application in hydrological and climate change research within Iran [24,25]. Recent investigations have identified four models, specifically CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, TaiESM1, and UKESM1-0-LL, as exhibiting exceptional accuracy in predicting temperatures across Iran [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Haji Mohammadi,

Shafaie,

Nazari Samani

et al. 2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate is one of the main drivers of hydrological processes, and climate change has caused worldwide effects such as water scarcity, frequent floods and intense droughts. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the water balance components, high flow and low flow stream conditions in a semi-arid basin in Iran. For this reason, the climate outputs of the CanESM5 model under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 were spatially downscaled by the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The hydrological process was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Key findings include a 74% increase in evapotranspiration, a reduction by up to 9.6% in surface runoff, and variations in discharge by up to 53.6%. The temporal analysis of snow melting changes revealed an increase in the volume of snow melting during winter months and a reduction in the volume during spring. The projected climate change is expected to cause notable variations in high and low flow events, particularly under the SSP585 scenario, which anticipates significant peaks in flow rates. This comprehensive analysis underscores the pressing need for adaptive strategies in water resource management to mitigate the anticipated impacts of climate variability.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Haji Mohammadi,

Shafaie,

Nazari Samani

et al. 2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Projected Climate Change Impacts on the Number of Dry and Very Heavy Precipitation Days by Century’s End: A Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

Afsari,

Nazari-Sharabian,

Hosseini

et al. 2024

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the number of dry days and very heavy precipitation days within Iran’s metropolises. Focusing on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, the research utilizes the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict future precipitation conditions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2025 to 2100. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how climate change will affect precipitation patterns in these major cities. Findings indicate that the SSP126 scenario typically results in the highest number of dry days, suggesting that under lower emission scenarios, precipitation events will become less frequent but more intense. Conversely, SSP585 generally leads to the lowest number of dry days. Higher emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP585) consistently show an increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days across all cities, indicating a trend towards more extreme weather events as emissions rise. These insights are crucial for urban planners, policymakers, and stakeholders in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address anticipated climatic changes.

show abstract

Extreme climate events under global warming in Iran

Cited by 2 publications

References 82 publications

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Projected Climate Change Impacts on the Number of Dry and Very Heavy Precipitation Days by Century’s End: A Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About