Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record

Marchildon, Gregory P.; Wheaton, Elaine; Fletcher, Amber J.; Vanstone, Jessica

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2190-7

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Nevertheless, precipitation, specifically, seasonal rainfall, is the climate characteristic with which adaptation policy-makers and agricultural producers are the most preoccupied (Marchildon et al, 2016). Broadly speaking, in the East African context, with which this paper is concerned, the perceptions literature reveals that many farmers perceive the growing season to be shortening, rains and rainy season onset to be becoming more erratic, rainfall to be becoming increasingly intense, and dry spells during the growing season to be worsening (Muita et al, 2016;Simelton et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability constitute a growing research theme within the body of agricultural adaptation literature (Muita, van Ogtrop, Ampt, & Vervoort, 2016). In particular, an increasing number of studies have sought to compare farmers' perceptions of changes and trends in climate with meteorological analyses of local historical climate data (Marchildon, Wheaton, Fletcher, & Vanstone, 2016;Meze-Hausken, 2004;Osbahr, Dorward, Stern, & Cooper, 2011;Oyerinde et al, 2015;Rao, Ndegwa, Kizito, & Oyoo, 2011;Simelton et al, 2013;Sutcliffe, Dougill, & Quinn, 2016). The complex and divergent findings of these studies make it hard to draw any firm conclusions about the overall reliability of perceptions versus meteorological analyses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The complex and divergent findings of these studies make it hard to draw any firm conclusions about the overall reliability of perceptions versus meteorological analyses. Whilst a number show that farmers are able to fairly accurately identify climatic events and trends (especially with regard to temperature) (Cobbinah & Anane, 2015;Marchildon et al, 2016;Shrestha & Nepal, 2016), many (particularly those studies conducted in locations characterized by high natural variability of rainfall such as sub-Saharan Africa) have revealed contradictions between local perceptions and meteorological analyses of changes to rainfall (Cooper et al, 2008;Meze-Hausken, 2004;Muita et al, 2016;Osbahr et al, 2011;Simelton et al, 2013;Sutcliffe et al, 2016). However, few, if any papers, have given specific attention to the over-arching question of the role of bridging organizations in helping align top-down and local perspectives on climate variability and change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whilst there may be shortcomings within human capacity to interpret longer term trends and changes in rainfall based on experience alone (Meze-Hausken, 2004;Rao et al, 2011), or conversely, within the capacity of meteorological analyses to reflect human experiences of climate at the local scale (Marchildon et al, 2016;Muita et al, 2016;Savo et al, 2016), narratives about climate change are global, in terms of their reach and influence. The term 'climate change' has been described as having become a 'household jargon' after 'a globalized effective communication has succeeded in selling the term to farmers' (Yaro, 2013(Yaro, , p. 1259.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Supporting climate change adaptation using historical climate analysis

Dorward

Osbahr

Sutcliffe

et al. 2019

Climate and Development

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Climate change and variability presents a challenge for rural communities in developing countries. Bridging organizations help align stakeholder and local perspectives and mediate communication that shapes adaptation responses. We argue that a first step for adaptation projects is to determine the nature of the climate norms and how climate is changing. This paper explores the degree to which development organizations in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania used analysis of local historical climate information in project aims, planning and design. This included 67 participants, managing 102 community-level climate-related agricultural projects, and three NGO case studies. Most focused on low-regret options. The majority of projects enhanced awareness of climate change and variability, but only 7% had used historical climate information during planning. Instead, projects relied on general knowledge or farmers' perceptions, which sometimes differ from analyzed historical climate information, potentially leading reinforcement of perceptions. It is vital that bridging organizations and policy makers value analyzed historical climate information when determining climate norms (including variability) and identify what data shows regarding how climate is changing. This is essential for planning with stakeholders the suitability of alternative crops and cultivars and ensuring other relevant environmental factors influencing agricultural production are considered. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Supporting climate change adaptation using historical climate analysis

Dorward

Osbahr

Sutcliffe

et al. 2019

Climate and Development

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“…Conversely, periods of excessive precipitation can have negative impacts on agriculture and society. Excessive precipitation can saturate the soil, constraining crop production by inhibiting seeding and causing substantial changes to physical and chemical properties of the crop (Zaidi et al, 2006;Marchildon et al, 2016). Extremely wet years can also be challenging for farmers who rely on irrigation due to a lack of drainage infrastructure (Marchildon et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

Northeast United States growing season moisture conditions: Associations with a North American mid‐tropospheric wave train

Suriano

Benjamin

Leathers

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Palmer Drought Severity Index is examined in the Northeast United States during the May–September growing seasons of 1950–2016, seeking to better understand the role of atmospheric circulation in moisture variability. Moist conditions for the Northeast are associated with the development of a mid‐tropospheric wave train over the United States, with enhanced ridging over the west, a trough over the Ohio Valley, and ridging over the Atlantic Ocean east of Newfoundland that favours enhanced uplift, precipitation, and southeasterly flow at the surface in the Northeast. A scalar representation of the wave train, a Summer Atmospheric Drought Index (SADI), is developed and robustly validated as a strong indicator of the Northeast moisture conditions. The SADI mid‐tropospheric wave train is the second largest mode of 500 hPa height variability over the North American sector from 1950–2016, and has an increasing trend such that the ridge‐trough‐ridge pattern is more prevalent and/or has become more enhanced with time. The wave train pattern has a significant and positive relationship to the phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This indicates that when the AO and NAO indices are positive, the wave train pattern favours the ridge‐trough‐ridge configuration over North America, and can lead to moist conditions in the Northeast. The opposite pathway is also valid and can lead to dry conditions in the Northeast. This pathway provides a physical link between Northeast moisture conditions and global‐scale variability, improving the understanding of atmospheric influences on regional drought and excessive moisture conditions.

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