Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Cordero, Raúl R.; Feron, Sarah; Damiani, Alessandro; Carrasco, Jorge; Karas, Cyrus; Wang, Chenghao; Kraamwinkel, Clarisse T.; Beaulieu, Anne

doi:10.1038/s41598-024-52481-x

Cited by 17 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Looking ahead, the research agenda is ambitiously set to explore the impact of extreme climate phenomena, specifically focusing on ENSO cycles and their significant influence on forest fire dynamics [74][75][76]. This initiative aims to further refine predictive capabilities, enhancing accuracy in forecasting and thereby improving fire management strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Occurrence of Forest Fire in the Central-South Region of China

Hai,

Han,

Vandansambuu

et al. 2024

Forests

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Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires, along with the key factors influencing their occurrence, and accurately forecasting these events are crucial for effective forest management. In the Central-South region of China, forest fires pose a significant threat to the ecological system, public safety, and economic stability. This study employs Geographic Information Systems (GISs) and the LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) model to identify the determinants of forest fire incidents and develop a predictive model for the likelihood of forest fire occurrences, in addition to proposing a zoning strategy. The purpose of the study is to enhance our understanding of forest fire dynamics in the Central-South region of China and to provide actionable insights for mitigating the risks associated with such disasters. The findings reveal the following: (i) Spatially, fire incidents exhibit significant clustering and autocorrelation, highlighting areas with heightened likelihood. (ii) The Central-South Forest Fire Likelihood Prediction Model demonstrates high accuracy, reliability, and predictive capability, with performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores exceeding 85% and AUC values above 89%, proving its effectiveness in forecasting the likelihood of forest fires and differentiating between fire scenarios. (iii) The likelihood of forest fires in the Central-South region of China varies across regions and seasons, with increased likelihood observed from March to May in specific provinces due to various factors, including weather conditions and leaf litter accumulation. Risks of localized fires are noted from June to August and from September to November in different areas, while certain regions continue to face heightened likelihood from December to February.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Occurrence of Forest Fire in the Central-South Region of China

Hai,

Han,

Vandansambuu

et al. 2024

Forests

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show abstract

“…Therefore, it is important to scrutinize the findings of this study to promptly mitigate the social and environmental consequences caused by El Niño events by achieving the necessary resilience [43]. This is an immediate priority for the additional reason that the current view is that the frequency and intensity of El Niño events due to climate change will have consequences capable of affecting biodiversity, ecosystem health, local communities, the economy, and the quality of air [44][45][46].…”

Section: Forecasting El Niño Events Using the "Modified Natural Time ...mentioning

confidence: 98%

A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event

Varotsos,

Sarlis,

Mazei

et al. 2024

Forecasting

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Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016). In September 2022, La Niña entered its third year and was unlikely to continue through 2024. Instead, since 2022, forecasts have pointed to a transition from La Niña to a Neutral phase in the summer or late 2023. The onset of El Niño occurred around April 2023, and it is anticipated by sophisticated models to be a strong event through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023–February 2024). The aim of this study is to demonstrate the ability of the combination of two new methods to improve the accuracy of the above claim because El Niño apart from climate anomalies, significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies, regulating the spread of diseases by insects (e.g., malaria and dengue fever), and influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. This is done by exploring first the previous major El Niño events in the period January 1876–July 2023. Our calculations show that the ongoing 2023–2024 El Niño will not be the strongest.

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Getting to the ‘Heart’ of Climate Change

Stewart

2024

Sustainable Development Goals Series

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Having briefly introduced this topic from the perspective of the United Nation Development Programme Goals, this introductory chapter provides a personal to scientific perspective on climate change in the modern era. As such, it will specifically describe how it (climate change) has the potential to adversely influence the heart health of the global population. In making this case, a cruel irony will be highlighted—that is, while most of the world’s poorest people barely contribute(d) to the reasons why climate change occurred, unlike high-polluting countries, they still suffer the same and even worse consequences. Moreover, they have limited resources and capacity to address the difficult challenges arising from climate change. In this context, while clinicians are mostly focussed on the individuals they care for, this chapter further explores why having a “climatic conscience” or at least awareness of climatic conditions on health, is the pathway to better health outcomes. Specifically, it provides a rationale why health services and clinicians alike, need to acknowledge and understand the link between external conditions and the physiological status of any individual—thereby thinking beyond the four walls of an environmentally controlled hospital or GP clinic.

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Extreme fire weather in Chile driven by climate change and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Predicting the Occurrence of Forest Fire in the Central-South Region of China

Predicting the Occurrence of Forest Fire in the Central-South Region of China

A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event

Getting to the ‘Heart’ of Climate Change

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