Extreme hydrological phenomena in the forest steppe and steppe zones of Ukraine under the climate change

Ovcharuk, Valeriya; Gopchenko, E. D.; Кічук, Н. С.; Shakirzanova, Zh. R.; Kushchenko, Liliia; Myroschnichenko, Mariia

doi:10.5194/piahs-383-229-2020

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…In the Ukrainian plains in the northwest of the country, the largest floods tend to occur in spring due to snowmelt. In the south, spring floods have strongly decreased in the past decades in association with higher temperatures, less snow storage and less snowmelt (Blöschl et al, 2019;Ovcharuk et al, 2020;Snizhko et al, 2021). In the west of Ukraine (the river basins of the Ukrainian Carpathians), floods occur during both winter and summer, and so climate effects are more complex (Didovets et al, 2019;Snizhko et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison

Snizhko

Bertola

Ovcharuk

et al. 2023

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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This study compares the flood regime of rivers in Ukraine and Austria over the last decades. We used data from mountain and lowland watersheds, where floods are caused by different processes. In order to identify possible shifts in the day of occurrence of annual flood maxima, we apply the kernel density method to the time series of two subperiods (1960–1987 and 1988–2015). We use the Mann Kendall test at a 5% significance level to identify significant positive or negative trends in the series of annual maximum discharges. In Austria, we observe an increasing trend in summer floods associated with increasing precipitation. In the lowland areas of Ukraine, a clear reduction in spring floods is observed, linked to shallower snow packs in a warming climate. In the Ukrainian Carpathians, on the other hand, where floods occur throughout the year, an increase in the portion of liquid precipitation during the cold period of the year leads to earlier floods and an increase in the probability of flooding in winter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison

Snizhko

Bertola

Ovcharuk

et al. 2023

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

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“…Авторами даного дослідження в низці публікацій розглядалась можливість використання індексів посух, зокрема SPEI, для розрахунків та прогнозів різних фаз водного режиму й межені у тому числі [48,49].…”

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Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Shakirzanova

Ovcharuk

Dokus

et al. 2022

Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series Geology. Geography. Ecology

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The aim of the study is to substantiate the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting the low flow discharge and its implementation for the Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area and Lower Dnieper rivers, taking into account climatic patterns of precipitation distribution and establishing probabilistic characteristics of low flow discharge in multi-year period. The study area is in a zone of significant risk due to the shortage of water resources, the formation of extremely low runoff in the dry flow period, which requires its definition and forecasting. The methodological basis of forecasts is to solve the equation in determining the components of the low flow of rivers by constructing regional dependences for forecasting the average decade summer-autumn low flow from previous water discharge (in runoff modules), establishing their probabilities water discharge for a number of intakes. Results. The paper substantiates the probabilistic-forecasting method for forecasting low flow discharge (in summer, autumn and winter periods) based on the construction of regional dependences of average decadal runoff modules on previous water discharge for groups of basins of studied rivers taking into account climatic dependences of precipitation distribution in the territory and the establishment of probabilistic characteristics of the low flow water discharge in a multi-year period. The methodology of territorial short-term forecasts of average decade water discharge of low flow of summer, autumn and winter river runoff is assessed as satisfactory with a margin of error of 70 % to 97 %, with a number of members of more than 500 points. To determine the cumulative probability of the forecast values of the average decade water discharge of the summer, autumn and winter dry weather flow, the empirical distribution of the average monthly water discharge in the limited seasons, which are generalized in the basins of the studied rivers of Ukraine, is established. Scientific novelty. For the first time for the zone of insufficient natural water content of rivers the method of territorial forecasts of low flow discharge, determination of their probability of occurrence in a multi-year period and cartographic representation of prognostic values have been developed and practically implemented. The practical importance is the use of forecast modules maps of low flow for spatial monitoring and assessment of low water levels on rivers in the whole region, including ungauged rivers, and their probabilistic characteristics – to assess the possible occurrence of low runoff, even when it reaches values close to the environmental runoff, which are critical for the functioning of the river ecosystem.

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Engineer substantiation of estimated characteristics of maximum rivers runoff during floods under climate change

Ovcharuk

Gopchenko

2022

Ecological Significance of River Ecosystems

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Extreme hydrological phenomena in the forest steppe and steppe zones of Ukraine under the climate change

Cited by 7 publications

References 18 publications

Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison

Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison

Probabilistic-forecasting method for determination of low flow discharge of Pivdennyi Buh, Black Sea area, and Lower Dnieper rivers

Engineer substantiation of estimated characteristics of maximum rivers runoff during floods under climate change

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