Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events associated with El Niño and Madden–Julian oscillation

Huang, Zongci; Zhang, Wenjun; Liu, Chao; Stuecker, Malte F.

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06190-8

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Here, we find that 88 of 114 simulations across all experiments exhibit a negative correlation between the Dipole Mode Index and the EEIO index, with a mean of correlation coefficient of −0.31. The strong positive IOD event in 1997-1998 was associated with ENSO and produced SST anomalies in the EEIO (Huang et al, 2022). However, there is no connection between changes in the correlation of the IOD and Niño-like modes and changes in either ENSO (Fig.…”

Section: Thirumalaimentioning

confidence: 95%

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

et al. 2023

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Abstract. The Indian Ocean exhibits multiple modes of interannual climate variability, whose future behaviour is uncertain. Recent analysis of glacial climates has uncovered an additional El Niño-like equatorial mode in the Indian Ocean, which could also emerge in future warm states. Here we explore changes in the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). These simulations are performed by an ensemble of models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 and over four coordinated experiments: three past periods – the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago), the last interglacial (127 000 years ago) – and an idealized forcing scenario to examine the impact of greenhouse forcing. The two interglacial experiments are used to characterize the role of orbital variations in the seasonal cycle, whilst the other pair focus on responses to large changes in global temperature. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is damped in both the mid-Holocene and last interglacial, with the amount related to the damping of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. No coherent changes in the strength of the IOBM are seen with global temperature changes; neither are changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nor the Niño-like mode. Under orbital forcing, the IOD robustly weakens during the mid-Holocene experiment, with only minor reductions in amplitude during the last interglacial. Orbital changes do impact the SST pattern of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with the cold pole reaching up to the Equator and extending along it. Induced changes in the regional seasonality are hypothesized to be an important control on changes in the Indian Ocean variability.

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Section: Thirumalaimentioning

confidence: 95%

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

et al. 2023

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“…For example, Zubair et al (2003) demonstrated that the September-October-November-December rainy season in Sri Lanka was enhanced and associated with IOD based on seasonal observational rainfall data from 1869 to 2000. However, IOD shows strong seasonality in the Indian Ocean and affects the climate over the IO rim countries (Huang et al 2022;McKenna et al 2020). For example, canonical IOD develops and matures predominantly within the September-October-November (SON) season (Tang and Zhou 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on Sri Lanka Rainfall in Recent Decades

Kajakokulan,

Jayawardena,

Attada

2024

Preprint

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The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) represents a significant driver of ocean-atmosphere coupled phenomena over the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO), exerting a strong influence on the inter-annual rainfall variability of Sri Lanka. However, the nature of the relationship between the IOD and Sri Lanka rainfall has undergone secular fluctuations over the past decades. Consequently, our study provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving relationship between the IOD and rainfall over the wet zone of Sri Lanka during the IOD peak fall, utilising reanalysis datasets from 1940 to 2020. It has been demonstrated that there is a weak and insignificant correlation between the IOD and rainfall over the wet zone of Sri Lanka during the pre-1980s. On the other hand, a strong and significant correlation was observed during the post-1980s. Furthermore, we found that positive IOD warming was higher in the post-1980s compared to the pre-1980s. This was attributed to strong walker circulation and, as a result, strong moisture convergence and convection over the western IO, which led to an enhanced relationship between rainfall over the wet zone of Sri Lanka and IOD. Thus, this study highlights how ocean-atmosphere changes in the tropical IO have contributed to strengthening the IOD- Sri Lanka rainfall relationship over recent decades and could be valuable for seasonal prediction in Sri Lanka.

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“…Here, we find that 88 of 114 simulations across all experiments exhibit a negative correlation between the Dipole Mode Index and the EEIO index, with a mean of correlation coefficient of -0.31. The strong positive IOD event in 1997-98 was associated with ENSO and produced SST anomalies in the EEIO (Huang et al, 2022). However, there is no connection between changes in the correlation of the IOD and Niño-like modes and changes in either ENSO (Fig.…”

Section: Niño-like Modementioning

confidence: 95%

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project

Brierley

Thirumalai²,

Grindrod³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The Indian Ocean exhibits multiple modes of interannual climate variability, whose future behaviour is uncertain. Recent analysis of glacial climates has uncovered an additional El Niño-like equatorial mode in the Indian Ocean, which could also emerge in future warm states. Here we explore changes in the tropical Indian Ocean simulated by the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). These simulations are performed by an ensemble of models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, and over four coordinated experiments: three past periods - the mid-Holocene (6000 years5 ago), the last glacial maximum (21,000 years ago), the last interglacial (127,000 years ago) - and an idealised forcing scenario to examine the impact of greenhouse forcing. The two interglacial experiments are used to characterise the role of orbital variations on the seasonal cycle, whilst the other pair focus on responses to large changes in global temperature. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) is damped in both the mid-Holocene and last interglacial, with the amount related to the damping of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific. No coherent changes in the strength of the IOBM are seen10 with global temperature changes; neither are changes in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) nor the Niño-like mode. Under orbital forcing, the IOD robustly weakens during the mid-Holocene experiment, with only minor reductions in amplitude during the last interglacial. Orbital changes do impact the SST pattern of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with the cold pole reaching up to the Equator and extending along it. Induced changes in the regional seasonality are hypothesised to be important control on changes in the Indian Ocean variability.

show abstract

Extreme Indian Ocean dipole events associated with El Niño and Madden–Julian oscillation

Cited by 14 publications

References 50 publications

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

Enhanced Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on Sri Lanka Rainfall in Recent Decades

Indian Ocean variability changes in the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project

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