Extreme precipitation time trends in Ontario, 1960–2010

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the behaviour of intensity–duration–frequency curves is critical to the estimation of design storms, and thus to the safe design of drainage infrastructure. The present study develops a regional time trend methodology that detects the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation from 1960 to 2010. The regional time trend linear regression method is fitted to different durations of annual maximum precipitation intensities derived from multiple sites in Ontario, Canada. The results show the relationship between climate change and increased extreme precipitation in this province. The regional trend analysis demonstrates, under nonstationary conditions arising from climate change, that the intensity of extreme precipitation increased decennially between 1.25% for the 30‐min storm and 1.82% for the 24‐h storm. A comparison of the results with a regional Mann–Kendall test validates the found regional time‐trend results. The results are employed to extrapolate the intensity–duration–frequency curves temporally and spatially for future decades across the province. The results of the regional time trend assessment help with the establishment of new safety margins for infrastructure design in Ontario. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Time‐varying extreme rainfall intensity‐duration‐frequency curves in a changing climate

“…The results parallel the ones presented in Soulis et al . [] that shows historical trends in the Canadian extreme rainfall statistics. The presence of a statistically significant trend, therefore, violates the currently used stationary‐based frameworks in the risk estimation using IDF curves.…”

Response of hydrology and CO<sub>2</sub> flux to experimentally altered rainfall frequency in a temperate poor fen, southern Ontario, Canada

“…In our study region, southern Ontario, seven consecutive dry days occur quite regularly during the growing season, with one or two 14-day dry periods typical within a growing season. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is increasing in the region (Cao and Ma, 2006;Soulis et al, 2016); however, little research has been conducted on the dynamics of the intervening dry periods. Most climate models project these dry periods to increase in both length and recurrence during growing seasons (Orlowsky and Seneviratine, 2012;Sillmann et al, 2013;Walsh et al, 2014).…”

Investigation of Trends, Temporal Changes in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves and Extreme Rainfall Events Clustering at Regional Scale Using 5 min Rainfall Data

“…Moreover, climate change is expected to lead to more frequent extreme rainfall events, which means that the nonstationary classical approach used for the IDF curves construction should be updated (e.g., [2][3][4]). Therefore, many studies have analyzed changes in extreme rainfall events.…”