Extreme Sea Levels from Tide and Surge Probability

Pugh, David; Vassie, J. M.

doi:10.1061/9780872621909.054

Cited by 52 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Regarding extreme water levels analyses in the English Channel, the most common French practice is based on the E2 approach, assuming that skew surges and tide are independent (Simon, 2007;Pugh and Vassie, 1979). The present study shows that it would be worthwhile to investigate further the tide-surge dependency in order to take better account for it in extreme water analysis.…”

Section: Idier Et Al: Tide-surge Interaction In the English Channelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

Idier

Dumas

Müller

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The English Channel is characterised by strong tidal currents and a wide tidal range, such that their influence on surges is expected to be non-negligible. In order to better assess storm surges in this zone, tide-surge interactions are investigated. A preliminary data analysis on hourly surges indicates some preferential times of occurrence of large storm surges at rising tide, especially in Dunkerque. To examine this further, a numerical modelling approach is chosen, based on the 2DH shallow-water model (MARS). The surges are computed both with and without tide interaction. For the two selected events (the November 2007 North Sea and March 2008 Atlantic storms), it appears that the instantaneous tide-surge interaction is seen to be non-negligible in the eastern half of the English Channel, reaching values of 74 cm (i.e. 50 % of the same event maximal storm surge) in the Dover Strait for the studied cases. This interaction decreases in westerly direction. In the risk-analysis community in France, extreme water levels have been determined assuming skew surges and tide as independent. The same hydrodynamic model is used to investigate this dependence in the English Channel. Simple computations are performed with the same meteorological forcing, while varying the tidal amplitude, and the skew surge differences D SS are analysed. Skew surges appear to be tide-dependent, with negligible values of D SS (<0.05 m) over a large portion of the English Channel, although reaching several tens of centimetres in some locations (e.g. the Isle of Wight and Dover Strait).

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Section: Idier Et Al: Tide-surge Interaction In the English Channelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

Idier

Dumas

Müller

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…For coastal flooding assessment, extreme water levels are most relevant. Different approaches based on observed water levels exist to calculated return periods [65,[105][106][107] but all of them except the peak over threshold model [106] are time-series length dependent. Since the joint times series of wave runup data and water level data is relatively short (eight years), the peak over threshold model with the generalized Pareto distribution was used to compute return periods associated with extreme water levels [106].…”

Section: Estimation Of Return Periods For Extreme Water Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal Flood Assessment Based on Field Debris Measurements and Wave Runup Empirical Model

David

Bernatchez

Boucher‐Brossard

et al. 2015

JMSE

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On 6 December 2010, an extra-tropical storm reached Atlantic Canada, causing coastal flooding due to high water levels being driven toward the north shore of Chaleur Bay. The extent of flooding was identified in the field along the coastline at Maria using DGPS. Using the assumption that the maximum elevation of flooded areas represents the combination of astronomical tide, storm surge and wave runup, which is the maximum elevation reached by the breaking waves on the beach, all flood limits were identified. A flood-zone delineation was performed using GIS and LiDAR data. An empirical formula was used to estimate runup elevation during the flood event. A coastal flood map of the 6 December flood event was made using empirical data and runup calculations according to offshore wave climate simulations. Along the natural beach, results show that estimating runup based on offshore wave data and upper foreshore beach slope represents well the observed flood extent. Where a seawall occupies the beach, wave breaking occurs at the toe of the structure and wave height needs to be considered independently of runup. In both cases (artificial and natural), flood risk is underestimated if storm surge height alone is considered. There is a need to incorporate wave characteristics in order to adequately model potential flood extent. A coastal flooding projection is proposed for Pointe Verte based on total water levels estimated according to wave climate simulation return periods and relative sea-level rise for the Chaleur Bay.

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“…These techniques generally involve fitting extreme value distributions (Gumbel 1954, Gumbel 1958, Jenkinson 1969 to water level observations to make inferences about the frequency of events ranging from the routinely measured to the unobserved extremes. The assumption underlying these techniques is that the frequency of the rarest and most extreme events can be ascertained from the frequency of more frequent, smaller surge events (Yang et al 1970, Ackers and Ruxton 1975, Fuhrboter 1979, Pugh and Vassie 1979, Coles and Tawn 1990, Tawn 1992. While frequency estimates for events that are well represented in the record may be reasonable, assumptions about the tail of the distribution, where the least frequent and most damaging events reside, may be tenuous (Walton 2000).…”

Section: Extreme Value Methods Applied To Water Level Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Holocene hurricane activity and climate variability in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Lane¹

2011

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Hurricane activity in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico and its relationship to regional and large-scale climate variability during the Late Holocene is explored. A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Reconstructed hurricane frequency is shown to exhibit statistically significant variability with the greatest activity occurring between 2700 and 2400 years ago and the least activity between 1900 to 1600 years ago and after 600 years ago. Proxy records of stormrelevant climate variables contain similar timescales of variability and suggest both regional and large-scale mechanisms have influenced hurricane activity on centennial to millennial timescales. In particular, low-frequency migrations of the Loop Current may exercise control over regional hurricane activity by changing the thermal structure of the upper ocean and influencing the role of storm-induced upwelling on hurricane intensification. A new method for estimating the frequency of hurricanegenerated storm surges is presented and applied to Apalachee Bay, Florida. Multisite paleohurricane reconstructions from this region are developed, and the effects of geographic boundary conditions and temporal resolution on estimates of paleohurricane frequency are explored. I would also like to thank Andrew Ashton, Katie Boldt, Christine Brandon, Ilya Buynevich, Emily Carruthers, Bill Curry, Andrew Desnoyers, Pat Donnelly, Jeff Dusenberry, Rob Evans, Liviu Giosan, Maya Gomes, Andrea Hawkes, Ning Lin, Dana McDonald, Skye Moret, Richard Poore, Sai Ravela, Rebecca Sorrell, Richard Sullivan, Jess Tierney, Michael Toomey, and Jon Woodruff for their efforts in the field, the lab and for insightful discussions of ideas and useful feedback on manuscripts.I am also grateful for the financial support provided by the American Meteorological Society, the National Science Foundation, the Bermuda Risk Prediction Initiative, the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping, and the Coastal Ocean Institute. 4 IntroductionThe life history of a hurricane is dictated by the environmental conditions it encounters (Bergeron 1954). Likewise, climate, which encompasses the full range of conditions experienced by all storms, constrains the attributes of hurricane populations (Gray 1968, Emanuel 1987, Emanuel 1988.Tropical cyclones are also important, active components of Earth's climate system (Hart 2010, Sriver et al. 2008. The relative climatic stability of the tropics is a theme that stretches from the warm, equable climates of Earth's distant past (Korty et al. Given the destructive role that tropical cyclones have played through history, a great deal of effort has been directed at understanding the processes that control their frequency, intensity, and track. Making these efforts all the more urgent, humans, like hurricanes, may also be influencing the very climate by which we are affected. In a 1957 paper about the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere, RogerRevelle fa...

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Extreme Sea Levels from Tide and Surge Probability

Cited by 52 publications

References 4 publications

Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

Coastal Flood Assessment Based on Field Debris Measurements and Wave Runup Empirical Model

Late Holocene hurricane activity and climate variability in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico

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