Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

Lionello, Piero; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2010.04.001

Cited by 37 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Along this line of thought, and in accordance with the model resolutions suggested by Lionello et al (2012), the present paper aims at quantifying the changes of waves and their extremes in the Adriatic Sea (see Figs. 1-2), comparing the present conditions with those expected in the period 2070-2099 under the A1B medium emissions scenario hypothesis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…In the Adriatic Sea region, which is characterized by a complex orography, this resolution was shown to adequately reproduce small spatial scale patterns, albeit using wind products from NWP systems (Signell et al, 2005). This approach allowed to provide a high-resolution mapping of the whole Adriatic Sea, in comparison with previous studies that were employing wind fields at about 50 km resolution (Lionello et al, 2008(Lionello et al, , 2012.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…In terms of sea wave projected changes, Lionello et al (2012) have recently shown how feasible is estimating the sea severity from future scenario simulations using regional climate model fields without the need of a statistical downscaling (as it was previously done in Lionello et al, 2003) nor the need to tune the wind fields magnitude to compensate for speed underestimation (Lionello et al, 2008). For example, Lionello et al (2012) used the wave model WAM (WAve prediction Model) to investigate extreme wind wave and storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Lionello et al (2012) used the wave model WAM (WAve prediction Model) to investigate extreme wind wave and storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea. WAM was set at a lat-long resolution of 0.25 • (≈25 km) and forced by wind fields computed by RegCM (Pal et al, 2000) at 0.60 • (≈60 km) resolution, under A2 medium-high emission and B2 medium-low emission scenarios (see IPCC, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, wind wave storms are rather frequent in the Adriatic Sea (see, for example, Lionello et al, 2012;Bignami et al, 2007;Sclavo et al, 1996). As an elongated semi-enclosed basin cast in the Mediterranean region (see Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Benetazzo

Fedele

Carniel

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Benetazzo

Fedele

Carniel

et al. 2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Mentaschi

Vousdoukas

Voukouvalas

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

172

153

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In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.

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Climatology and trends of the Adriatic Sea wind waves: analysis of a 37‐year long instrumental data set

Pomaro

Cavaleri

Lionello

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study concerns the analysis of a 37‐year long directional wave time series recorded since 1979 at the CNR‐ISMAR oceanographic research tower, located in the Northern Adriatic Sea. The length of the time series allows to describe the wave climate in the North Adriatic and to identify trends and links with large‐scale climate patterns. The northern part of the Adriatic Sea is characterized by two main wind and correspondingly wave regimes, strongly forced by the regional orography: the long‐fetch south‐easterly ‘sirocco’ and the short‐fetch strong north‐easterly ‘bora’ wind generated waves, blowing along the major and minor axis of the basin, respectively. Bora is the most frequent regime, but high waves are mostly associated to sirocco. A clear decrease of the significant wave height 99th percentile is evident, paralleled by a smaller, but distributed along the annual cycle, increase of the 50th and 75th ones. The estimated trend of the frequency of events above a certain threshold confirms an increase of the average storm frequency, with a shift from both the lower and the higher to the central part of the distribution, paralleled by a decrease of the maximum Hs values. In particular, a distributed decrease of the bora significant wave height is recognized. For sirocco the tendency is less pronounced, but with an evident increase of the frequency of the mean values. The high sensitivity of this particular area to even small variations of large‐scale climate allows to explore possible links of the local wave, hence wind, activity with large‐scale Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns or weather regimes. Our main interest is on the storm tracks and jet stream location/intensity over vast areas, which led us to choose four reference patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic (EA), EA/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns.

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Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

Cited by 37 publications

References 20 publications

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns

Climatology and trends of the Adriatic Sea wind waves: analysis of a 37‐year long instrumental data set

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