Extreme-value time-series analysis of Australian Region A gust wind speeds to examine instrument bias

Cechet, R. P.; Sanabria, L. A.

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012016

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…However, detailed analysis on daily wind speed for that region showed heterogeneities in the time series caused by sensor replacement not considered in the decadal average (Merino and Gassmann, 2021). Similar issues in wind speed time‐series were reported by Cechet and Sanabria (2010, 2012) on the Australian weather station time‐series.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Trends of reference evapotranspiration and its physical drivers in southern South America

Merino

Gassmann

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable used to characterize the evaporative demand of the atmosphere and its impact on the water balance. During the last decades, significant ETo variabilities have been observed, especially at mid‐latitudes. These variabilities respond mainly to local variations in their physical drivers, such as solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit or wind speed. In this study, the annual and seasonal ETo estimates are generated using the Penman–Monteith method (FAO). Surface weather stations for the Argentine territory and reanalysis data for southern South America of the last four decades (1981–2020) are used. Contributions of both aerodynamic (ETaero) and radiative (ETrad) effects are evaluated to analyse their driving role. Significant positive ETo trends are observed from reanalysis data throughout Argentina, especially on the central east side of the Andes Mountain range with values up to 10 mm·year−1. Most of these ETo changes respond to positive trends in air temperature in the study area, while those in the central Andes also respond to negative trends in dew point temperatures. On the other hand, the increase in energy availability through positive trends in net surface radiation produced a slightly higher ETo in the northern regions of the country. Regional ETo values have shown to be more sensitive to variations in air temperature in the northeastern areas, although changes in humidity and solar radiation could also play a role. In a context of climate change, given that temperature and rainfall are expected to increase in the central and northeastern region of the country and decrease along the eastern side of the Andes Mountains in the coming decades, the characteristics observed over the 1981–2020 period are expected to intensify in the near future.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Trends of reference evapotranspiration and its physical drivers in southern South America

Merino

Gassmann

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Although this variable was less studied than air temperature or precipitation, the understanding of the SWS evolution is of great relevance for both productive activities and ecological preservation. Changes in WS regimes are important for coastal erosion (Dragani et al ., 2013; Knorr, 2013), air pollution potential (Gassmann and Mazzeo, 2000), forest and community infrastructure protection (Jungo et al ., 2002), surface energy balance (Rayner, 2007), building construction (Cechet and Sanabria, 2010; Cechet and Sanabria, 2012; Tapajós et al ., 2016), maritime activities (Caires and Sterl, 2005), and wind energy production (Barros, 1983; McVicar et al ., 2008; Cross et al ., 2015). Another important activity for which changes in SWS has a great impact is agriculture production, since it is a driver of evapotranspiration in agricultural systems (de la Casa and Ovando, 2016; Liuzzo et al ., 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind trends analysis in southern South America from weather station and reanalysis data

Merino

Gassmann

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Surface and upper‐level wind speed changes were analysed for several weather stations distributed throughout Argentina from 1990 to 2020. Both annual and seasonal wind speed trends were estimated for individual surface stations and available rawinsonde data. In order to explore the nature of these changes, different percentile time series were evaluated. NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 data were also assessed to verify how these long‐term changes are represented by the different reanalysis time series. A significant decline in measured surface wind speed is observed for most stations, with a reduction up to 13%·decade−1 in some of them. Despite differences on each station's wind speed distributions due to regional characteristics, the estimated trends were mostly negative for the annual 75th and 95th percentile time series. Upper‐level stations registered positive trends especially in the upper troposphere (200 hPa) in northern Argentina, while Patagonia's wind profile showed significant positive wind speed trends at most levels. Reanalysis data have severe limitations to reproduce the observed behaviour in the near‐surface levels, but managed to generate adequate estimates for the medium to high troposphere.

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“…Typically, in Ontario, Canada, these extreme wind events result from intense synoptic storms or convective activity or combinations of both. It is often the wind gusts or the extreme winds that cause the wind-related damages and, hence, are the most crucial measurement for wind hazard analyses Cechet and Sanabria 2010). Wind gusts represent one of the major loads that impact buildings and other infrastructure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Gusts under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada

Cheng¹,

Li²,

Li³

et al. 2012

J. Climate

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Hourly/daily wind gust simulation models and regression-based downscaling methods were developed to assess possible impacts of climate change on future hourly/daily wind gust events over the province of Ontario, Canada. Since the climate/weather validation process is critical, a formal model result verification process has been built into the analysis to ascertain whether the methods are suitable for future projections. The percentage of excellent and good simulations among all studied seven wind gust categories ranges from 94% to 100% and from 69% to 95%, respectively, for hourly and daily wind gusts, for both model development and validation.The modeled results indicate that frequencies of future hourly/daily wind gust events are projected to increase late this century over the study area under a changing climate. For example, across the study area, the annual mean frequency of future hourly wind gust events $28, $40, and $70 km h 21 for the period 2081-2100 derived from the ensemble of downscaled eight-GCM A2 simulations is projected to be about 10%-15%, 10%-20%, and 20%-40% greater than the observed average during the period 1994-2007, respectively. The corresponding percentage increase for future daily wind gust events is projected to be ,10%, ;10%, and 15%-25%. Inter-GCM-model and interscenario uncertainties of future wind gust projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, projected percentage increases in frequencies of future hourly/daily wind gust events $28 and $40 km h 21 are about 90%-100% and 60%-80% greater than inter-GCMmodel-interscenario uncertainties, respectively. For wind gust events $70 km h 21 , the corresponding projected percentage increases are about 25%-35% greater than the interscenario uncertainties and are generally similar to inter-GCM-model uncertainties.

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Extreme-value time-series analysis of Australian Region A gust wind speeds to examine instrument bias

Cited by 3 publications

References 4 publications

Trends of reference evapotranspiration and its physical drivers in southern South America

Trends of reference evapotranspiration and its physical drivers in southern South America

Wind trends analysis in southern South America from weather station and reanalysis data

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Gusts under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada

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