Extremist ideology as a complex contagion: the spread of far-right radicalization in the United States between 2005 and 2017

Abstract

Increasing levels of far-right extremist violence have generated public concern about the spread of radicalization in the United States. Previous research suggests that radicalized individuals are destabilized by various environmental (or endemic) factors, exposed to extremist ideology, and subsequently reinforced by members of their community. As such, the spread of radicalization may proceed through a social contagion process, in which extremist ideologies behave like complex contagions that require multiple exposures for adoption. In this study, I applied an epidemiological method called two-component spatio-temporal intensity modeling to data from 416 far-right extremists exposed in the United States between 2005 and 2017. The results indicate that patterns of far-right radicalization in the United States are consistent with a complex contagion process, in which reinforcement is required for transmission. Both social media usage and group membership enhance the spread of extremist ideology, suggesting that online and physical organizing remain primary recruitment tools of the far-right movement. In addition, I identified several endemic factors, such as poverty, that increase the probability of radicalization in particular regions. Future research should investigate how specific interventions, such as online counter-narratives to battle propaganda, may be effectively implemented to mitigate the spread of far-right extremism in the United States.

Social Connectedness: Measurement, Determinants, and Effects

“…The observed reduction in the distance elasticities of trade, after controlling for social connectedness, is consistent with theories described above which suggest that geographic distance might be proxying for other factors affecting trade between Table 3 Social Connectedness and Across-Region Economic Interactions (1) (2) states. Further investigating the causal role of social connectedness in facilitating trade flows might therefore be a useful avenue for future research.…”

“…We only consider friendship links among Facebook users who have interacted with Facebook over the 30 days prior to the April 2016 snapshot. 1 We treat each friendship link identically.…”

Radicalization to Violence: A View from Cultural Psychiatry

“…4 Three main social processes may explain this increase in the prevalence and ideological legitimation of violence: (1) an upsurge in populist political positions which unite people around threatened identities, including extreme right-wing movements in North America, South America and in Europe) (Rousseau, Miconi, Frounfelker, Hassan, & Oulhote, 2020). In Canada, these were associated with the mosque attack in Quebec City, January 2017, and the increase in hate crimes toward asylum seekers (Normandin, 2017); (2) increased exposure to radical violent online content associated with an increase in both extremist attitudes and actual numbers of violent acts (ADL Fighting Hate for Good, 2019;Hassan et al, 2018;Müller & Schwarz, 2018); and (3) contagion phenomena, with an increase in similar attacks and copycat effects (imitation of a behavioral pattern independently of time) associated with widespread media coverage of mass killings (Gould & Olivares, 2017;Youngblood, 2020). These social processes are embedded in larger changes on a global scale.…”

Can Extremism Be Thought of As an Insider Threat?

“…21 An insider may also be "a person who is in a position of power or has access to confidential information" or "a person (such as an officer or director) who is in a position to have special knowledge of the affairs of or to influence the decisions of a company." 22 According to Lord, an insider threat is defined as "a security threat that originates from within the organization being attacked or targeted, often an employee or officer of an organization or enterprise," 23 where a security threat is a malicious act whose purpose is to corrupt or steal data, or to disrupt the systems in an organization, or even the entire organization. 24 An insider threat need not come from a current employee or stakeholder but can arise from a former employee, board member, or anyone who at some point in time had access to proprietary or confidential information from within an organization.…”