Extrinsic Incubation Period of Dengue: Knowledge, Backlog, and Applications of Temperature Dependence

Tjaden, Nils Benjamin; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Fischer, Dominik; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002207

Cited by 163 publications

(145 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…An accurate risk assessment of a climate-driven shift or spread of a vector-borne disease can then be obtained by combining risk maps of vector and transferred pathogen amplification in the light of a rapidly changing European climate for dengue [15,59,60] or chikungunya [61,62].…”

Section: Climatic Constraints and Novel Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches

et al. 2014

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The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans. Since its introduction at the end of the 20th century, it has become well established in large parts of southern Europe. As future expansion as a result of climate change can be expected, determining the current and projected future climatic suitability of this invasive mosquito in Europe is of interest. Several studies have tried to detect the potential habitats for this species, but differing data sources and modelling approaches must be considered when interpreting the findings. Here, various modelling methodologies are compared with special emphasis on model set-up and study design. Basic approaches and model algorithms for the projection of spatio-temporal trends within the 21st century differ substantially. Applied methods range from mechanistic models (e.g. overlay of climatic constraints based on geographic information systems or rather process-based approaches) to correlative niche models. We conclude that spatial characteristics such as introduction gateways and dispersal pathways need to be considered. Laboratory experiments addressing the climatic constraints of the mosquito are required for improved modelling results. However, the main source of uncertainty remains the insufficient knowledge about the species' ability to adapt to novel environments.

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Section: Climatic Constraints and Novel Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches

et al. 2014

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“…The model includes mosquito and human variables, such as mosquito density, biting rate, probability of successful infection in humans and in mosquitoes, recovery rate in humans, mosquito mortality rate, and the EIP. The EIP is expressed as an exponent; thus, a slight change in EIP could have a large impact on the transmission of DENV in a human population (24).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, an increase in viral fitness, i.e., faster replication, speed of dissemination, or evasion of acquired or innate immunity, may lead to positive selection in mosquitoes or humans. A replicative advantage could result in a shorter extrinsic incubation period (EIP), the time taken for an infected mosquito to become infectious to a human host, which could in turn increase the likelihood and the rate of virus transmission to humans (24). Alternatively, stochastic events leading to a genetic bottleneck event within or among hosts may also lead to the emergence of new genetic variants that could compete with existing viral populations and may ultimately form new genetic clades.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Replicative Fitness of a Dengue Virus 2 Clade in Native Mosquitoes: Potential Contribution to a Clade Replacement Event in Nicaragua

Quiner

Parameswaran

Ciota

et al. 2014

J Virol

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The four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV serotype 1 [DENV-1] to DENV-4) are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes, causing up to 390 million DENV infections worldwide each year. We previously reported a clade replacement of the DENV-2 Asian-American genotype NI-1 clade by the NI-2B clade in Managua, Nicaragua. Here, we describe our studies of the replicative ability of NI-1 and NI-2B viruses in an A. aegypti cell line (Aag2) and A. aegypti mosquitoes reared from eggs collected in Managua. In coinfection experiments, several different pairs of NI-1 and NI-2B clinical isolates were used to infect Aag2 cells or blood-fed A. aegypti mosquitoes. Results consistently showed a significant replicative advantage of NI-2B over NI-1 viruses early after infection in vitro, and in mosquitoes, NI-2B viruses attained a higher replicative index than NI-1 isolates 3 to 7 days postinfection (dpi). At 7 dpi, NI-2B viruses displayed a significantly higher replicative index in legs and salivary glands; however, this advantage was lost by 14 and 21 dpi. We also found that the percentage of mosquitoes in which NI-2B viruses were dominant was significantly higher than that in which NI-1 viruses were dominant on day 7 but not at later time points. Taken together, these data demonstrate that clade NI-2B holds a replicative advantage over clade NI-1 early in infection that wanes at later time points. This early fitness advantage of NI-2B viruses over NI-1 viruses in the native vector, A. aegypti, suggests a shorter extrinsic incubation period for NI-2B viruses, which could have contributed to the clade replacement event in Managua. IMPORTANCEDengue virus (DENV), one of the most medically important arthropod-borne viruses, is transmitted to humans by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Dengue epidemics continue to increase in frequency, geographic range, and severity and are a major public health concern. This is due to globalization, unplanned urbanization, and climate change, as well as host genetics and immune responses and viral genetic changes. DENV consists of four serotypes, in turn composed of genotypes and genetically distinct clades. What drives the frequent replacement of a previously circulating DENV clade by another is unclear. Here, we investigate the replicative fitness of two clades of DENV serotype 2 in Aedes aegypti cells and mosquitoes collected from the region where the viruses circulated and conclude that increased replicative fitness could have contributed to a DENV clade replacement event in Nicaragua. These findings provide insight into vectordriven evolution of DENV epidemics. Dengue virus (DENV) is an arbovirus of global importance comprised of four phylogenetically related serotypes, DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) to DENV-4. DENV is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes, which are typically found in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. However, due to a complex combination of factors that include migratio...

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“…Many studies on EIP have shown that viral development within the mosquito accelerates with increasing temperature (e.g. Tjaden et al, 2013). The consequence of this is that the mosquito can become infectious faster, enabling onward transmission of the virus before mosquito mortality;…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

Lowe

Cazelles

Rácz

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease. The dengue mosquito and virus are sensitive to climate variability and change. Temperature, humidity and precipitation influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat, and the virus replication speed. In this study, we develop a modelling procedure to quantify the added value of including climate information in a dengue model for the 76 provinces of Thailand, from 1982-2013. We first developed a seasonal-spatial model, to account for dependency structures from one month to the next and between provinces. We then tested precipitation and temperature variables at varying time lags, using linear and nonlinear functional forms, to determine an optimum combination of time lags to describe dengue relative risk. Model parameters were estimated using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA).This approach provides a novel opportunity to perform model selection in a Bayesian framework, while accounting for underlying spatial and temporal dependency structures and linear or nonlinear functional forms. We quantified the additional variation explained by interannual climate variations, above that provided by the seasonal-spatial model. Overall, an additional 8% of the variance in dengue relative risk can be explained by accounting for interannual variations in precipitation and temperature in the previous month. The inclusion of nonlinear functions of climate in the model framework improved the model for 79% of the provinces. Therefore, climate forecast information could significantly contribute to a national dengue early warning system in Thailand.

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Extrinsic Incubation Period of Dengue: Knowledge, Backlog, and Applications of Temperature Dependence

Cited by 163 publications

References 26 publications

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches

Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches

Increased Replicative Fitness of a Dengue Virus 2 Clade in Native Mosquitoes: Potential Contribution to a Clade Replacement Event in Nicaragua

Quantifying the added value of climate information in a spatio-temporal dengue model

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