Fables and foibles: A critical analysis of the Palaeoflora database and the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction

Abstract

The 'Coexistence Approach' is a mutual climate range (MCR) technique combined with the nearest-living relative (NLR) concept. It has been widely used for palaeoclimate reconstructions based on Eurasian plant fossil assemblages; most of them palynofloras (studied using light microscopy). The results have been surprisingly uniform, typically converging to subtropical, per-humid or monsoonal conditions. Studies based on the Coexistence Approach have had a marked impact in literature, generating over 10,000 citations thus far. However, recent studies have pointed out inherent theoretical and practical problems entangled in the application of this widely used method. But so far little is known how results generated by the Coexistence Approach are affected by subjective errors, data errors, and violations of the basic assumptions. The majority of Coexistence Approach studies make use of the Palaeoflora database (the combination of which will be abbreviated to CA + PF). Testing results produced by CA + PF studies has been hindered by the general unavailability of the contents in the underlying Palaeoflora database; two exceptions are the mean-annual temperature tolerances and lists of assigned associations between fossils and nearest-living relatives. Using a recently published study on the Eocene of China, which provides the first and only insight into the data structure of the Palaeoflora database, we compare the theory and practice of Coexistence Approach using the Palaeoflora database (CA + PF). We show that CA + PF is riddled by association and climate data error. We reveal flaws in the application of the Coexistence Approach, which is often in stark contrast to the theory of the method. We show that CA + PF is highly vulnerable against numerous sources of errors, mainly because it lacks safeguards that could identify unreliable data. We demonstrate that the CA + PF produces coherent, pseudo-precise results even for artificially generated, random plant assemblages. Alternative MCR-NLR methods can surpass the most imminent deficits of the Coexistence Approach, and may be used as a stop-gap until more accurate bioclimatic and distribution data on potential Eurasian NLRs, and theoretically and statistically robust methods will become available. Finally, general guidelines are provided for the future application of methods using the mutual climatic range with nearest living relatives approach when reconstructing climate from plant fossil assemblages.

The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4: methodologies for selection, compilation and analysis of latest Paleocene and early Eocene climate proxy data, incorporating version 0.1 of the DeepMIP database

“…This assumption inevitably introduces uncertainty that increases with the age of the geological record. Grimm et al (2016) demonstrated how the incorrect use of outliers and fossil taxa with ambiguous affinity, as well as insufficient documentation of modern distribution of the NLR, can result in erroneous climate estimates from the CA. By its nature, the NLR approach cannot accurately predict environmental conditions beyond the present-day range.…”

“…For instance, maximum LAT estimates plateau at ~25 for CA (Utescher et al, 2014). presented with confidence ranges including the uncertainty associated with the estimate of climate tolerances (Grimm et al, 2016). For comparisons using larger datasets, each climate estimate should be rated using a qualitative ranking system (i.e.…”

Reply to Reviewer 2

“…Boron-based CO 2 reconstructions spanning the last ∼800 000 years show excellent agreement with ice core CO 2 estimates (Hönisch et al, 2009). The results of boron isotope studies have also been found to be highly reproducible between different laboratories Gutjahr et al, 2017), allowing the integration of multiple datasets and providing high confidence in the fundamental measurement of boron isotopes in biogenic carbonates. In common with other marine CO 2 proxies (e.g., alkenones below), age constraints are also typically strong for δ 11 B c and it is easy to correlate the resultant CO 2 estimates with marine-based climate proxies, some of which can be measured on the same material (e.g., δ 18 O, 47 and Mg/Ca in planktic foraminifera).…”

Past climate and vegetation in Southeast Bulgaria — a study based on the late Miocene pollen record from the Tundzha Basin

“…This method permits to analyze also carpological data and to compare the two types of fossil associations. This method provides a robust palaeoclimatic proxy although its reliability has been questioned by some authors (Grimm and Denk 2012;Grimm et al 2016). A lot of studies were undertaken for testing different climate reconstruction methods (CAMethod, LMA, CLAMP, ELPA, etc.…”