Faceted classification of the spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh river

Khrystiuk, Borys; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Prykhodkina, Viktoria S.

doi:10.31577/geogrcas.2020.72.1.04

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The classification of hydrographs by similar shapes in them was carried out and it was shown that the presence of similar in shape hydrographs in the time series of classes indicates that from time to time the similar formation conditions of water flow at the catchment area repeats due to cyclicity of climatic and, as a consequence, of hydrological processes. In the study (Khrystiuk et al, 2020) the cyclicity of spring floods based on the classification of hydrographs by the facet method in the Southern Buh River Basin is showed.…”

Section: Results and Their Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Gorbachova¹,

Prykhodkina²,

Khrystiuk³

2021

Journ. Geol., Geogr., and Geoec..

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The river floods are among the most dangerous natural disasters in the world. Each year, the spring floods cause the significant material damage in the different countries, including Ukraine. Knowledge of trends in such floods, as well as their probabilistic forecast, is of great scientific and practical importance. In last decades, the decreasing phase of cyclical fluctuations of the maximum runoff of spring floods has been observed on the plain rivers of Ukraine, including the Southern Bug River. In addition, there is an increase in air temperature. So, the actual task is the determine the modern probable maximum discharges estimates of spring floods in the Southern Buh River Basin as well as their comparison with the estimates that were computed earlier. It gives an opportunity to reveal possible changes of the statistical characteristics and values of the probable maximum discharges, to analyze and to discuss the reasons for these changes. For the investigation, we used the time series of the maximum discharges of spring floods for 21 gauging stations in the Southern Buh River Basin since the beginning of the observations and till 2015. The method of the regression on the variable that is based on the data of analogues rivers was used to bringing up the duration of the time series and restoration of the gaps. In the study, the hydro-genetic methods for estimation of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological series, namely the mass curve, the residual mass curve and the combined graphs. The distributions of Kritskyi & Menkel and Pearson type III for the frequency analysis were used. It has been shown in this study that the maximum discharges of spring floods of time series are quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary. It is explained the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of cyclical fluctuations, their considerable duration, as well as the significant variability of the maximal flow. The series of maximal runoff of spring floods are very asymmetric, which significantly complicates the selection of analytical distribution curves. The updated current parameters of the maximal spring flood runoff have not changed significantly. It can be assumed that such characteristics have already become stable over time, as the series of maximal runoff of spring floods already have phases of increasing and decreasing of long-term cyclic fluctuations.

show abstract

Section: Results and Their Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Gorbachova¹,

Prykhodkina²,

Khrystiuk³

2021

Journ. Geol., Geogr., and Geoec..

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Long-Term Forecasting of the Start Date of Spring Flood in the Upper of the Southern Buh River by Teleconnection Indices

Khrystiuk,

Gorbachova

2023

HHH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The start date of spring flood is an important hydrological characteristic. Insufficient attention is paid to its long-term forecasting, which is due to the complexity and unsolved problem in terms of improving the quality of such forecasting. Most often, quantitative methods are used in long-term forecasting. The most used are statistical, correlation, and regression analysis. Recently, teleconnection indices and patterns are increasingly used in hydrological long-term forecasting. At the same time, the basis of the concept of forecasting by the teleconnection connections is the idea of the influence of distant fluctuations of atmospheric circulation on the hydrological event. So, the theteleconnection indices and patterns are used for forecasting and analysis of river flow, atmospheric precipitation, research of snow water equivalent of river basins, forecasting of droughts and ice phenomena. The objective of this of the study is to develop a methodology of the long-term forecast of the spring flood start date in the upper part of the Southern Buh River using teleconnection indices and patterns. The method of long-term forecasting of the start date of spring flood was developed for the Southern Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge. The Southern Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge is located in the forest zone and characterizes homogeneous conditions of the formation of spring flood. Information on the start dates of spring flood for the observation period 1966-2015 and teleconnection indices and patterns were used. The start dates of spring flood at the Southern Buh River near Lelitka village are characterized by significant variability. So, the difference between late and early dates of spring flood is 65 days. 34 teleconnection indices and patterns were used, which the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration USA were determined. The best regression relationship with the start dates of spring flood at the South Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge was obtained for the indices WPAC850 in January and AAO in December. The technique corresponds to the “satisfactory” category for the probability of not exceeding the permissible error, which allows it to be used for forecasting. So, the teleconnection indices and patterns can be quite successfully used in the long-term forecasting of the start date of spring flood.

show abstract

Faceted classification of the spring flood hydrographs of the Southern Buh river

Cited by 2 publications

References 5 publications

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Long-Term Forecasting of the Start Date of Spring Flood in the Upper of the Southern Buh River by Teleconnection Indices

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About