Factor-Based Investing in Market Cycles: Fama–French Five-Factor Model of Market Interest Rate and Market Sentiment

Abstract

This study explores risk–reward patterns in the US stock market and establishes optimal factor-based investing using the Fama–French five-factor model through market cycles constructed by Shiller’s interest rates and Baker–Wurgler’s sentiments. Our emerging evidence confirms that the high-interest rate, high-sentiment cycle generates higher excess returns, and the low-interest rate, low-sentiment cycle generates lower excess returns, which supports the hypothesis that the market cycles as investment horizons have an asymmetric effect on stock returns. Furthermore, the size factor outperforms in the low-interest rate, low-sentiment cycle, whilst the value factor outperforms in the high-interest rate, high-sentiment cycle. Using the asymmetric GARCH model, the asymmetric leverage effect of interest rates and sentiments on five-factor returns is empirically demonstrated with explanatory power of five-factor characteristics. Unlike previous studies, our findings also imply that high- and low-sentiment cycles asymmetrically affect the value factor, and the value premium does not disappear over time, highlighting the role of the market cycles in five-factor returns.