Factors Affecting China's Carbon Trading Price—A Case Study Based on Tianjin Carbon Emissions Trading Market

Abstract

Building a carbon emission trading market is an effective way to control carbon emissions. The carbon emission trading price is the key to the carbon trading market, and it will affect the carbon emission reduction behavior of enterprises. This study use the vector autoregression (VAR) model, the cointegration analysis, and the Granger causality test to analyze the influence of industrial development index (Shanghai Stock Exchange Industrial Index (000004.SH)), coal price index (National Coal Price Index), air quality index (AQI), and economic index (Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)) on the carbon emission trading price in Tianjin. Empirical research results based on data from January 2014 to December 2019 show that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Industrial Index and AQI are positively correlated with Tianjin carbon emission trading price, and the National Coal Price Index and PMI are negatively correlated with Tianjin carbon emission trading price. Finally, some suggestions are made to promote the rapid maturity of the national carbon emission trading market of China.