Factors Affecting Future Scenarios for Alternative Vehicles Market

Abstract

In the literature, many foresight methods have been used to cope with uncertainty concerning the future demand for electric, hydrogen, and plug-in hybrid vehicles. As a result, different scenarios and roadmap have been provided, often with contrasting outcomes. This paper is a short review of the existing literature aiming to summarize the main results obtained so far, describing the diverse ranges of possible development of these alternative vehicles over the next 40 years. This paper then addresses some key questions through the answers provided by the literature: what are the drivers of an alternative vehicles economy? What are the principal barriers and the strategic goals? When will an economy of alternative vehicles emerge? What does an alternative vehicle economy attain?

A preliminary study on the changes in the Italian automotive supply chain for the introduction of electric vehicles

“…There is also a lack of policies to promote the use of these vehicles. Ciarapica et al (2012) estimated that 2033 as the transition year. According to Owen and Gordon (2002), the EV market will not be significant at least for the next twenty years.…”

Impact of electromobility on automotive architectures

“…In the long run, instead, hybrid powertrain concepts with a larger share of electrification and batteryelectric vehicles will dominate the car market. Fuel cell vehicles will need drastic improvements in order to gain a notable market share [1]. The transition from traditional to alternative vehicle will not only concern driven powertrain, but also car architecture.…”

“…Alternative powertrain concepts will gain an increasing significance in the next 20 years. Although there is still a huge uncertainty regarding the future orientation of sustainable passenger mobility, optimistic scenarios have predicted that the market penetration of alternative vehicles will notably increase after around 2020, achieving about 80% market share [1]. By contrast, less optimistic foresights limit market penetration of these vehicles up to 35% by 2050, and even less according to a Business-as-Usual scenario [1].…”

“…Although there is still a huge uncertainty regarding the future orientation of sustainable passenger mobility, optimistic scenarios have predicted that the market penetration of alternative vehicles will notably increase after around 2020, achieving about 80% market share [1]. By contrast, less optimistic foresights limit market penetration of these vehicles up to 35% by 2050, and even less according to a Business-as-Usual scenario [1]. In the long run, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will dominate the future automotive market scenario; however, the former will need more efficient fuel cells and hydrogen storage systems in order to gain a proper market share.…”