Aim
To estimate the risk of disability associated with high‐risk prescribing, such as polypharmacy and drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties, using long‐term care needs certification as a proxy of incident disability.
Methods
A case–control study nested within a cohort of older adults (89% aged ≥65 years) was carried out between 2014 and 2019 using the combined medical claims and long‐term care needs certification database of Tsukuba City, Japan. We identified 2123 cases who received their first long‐term care certification, and matched them to 40 295 controls based on age, sex, residential area and observation period (≥36 months). The risk of long‐term care needs certification associated with high‐risk prescribing exposure 7–30 months before the index month was estimated using conditional logistic regression adjusting for baseline comorbidities and health service use.
Results
Polypharmacy (5–9 drugs; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.18–1.47), hyperpolypharmacy (≥10 drugs; aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.57–2.23) and cumulative dose of drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties (1–364 defined daily dose [DDD]; aOR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97–1.19; 365–729 DDD; aOR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07–1.45; ≥730 DDD; aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.19–1.62) had dose–response relationships with long‐term care certification risks.
Conclusions
High‐risk prescribing was associated with the risk of long‐term care needs certification in the general older population. Further studies are warranted to examine whether a decrease in prescribing drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties could reduce the long‐term care burden on society. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 497–504.