Factors contributing to a long-term decrease in national lightning fatality rates: case study of the United Kingdom with wider implications

Abstract

Decadal average lightning fatality rates in the United Kingdom have decreased markedly from 1.09 deaths per million population per year (M-1 yr-1) in the 1850s to 0.02 M-1 yr-1 by the 2010s. Factors contributing to the decrease are explored. They include a large reduction in the national workforce engaged in manually-intensive agriculture. Consequently, agricultural workforce deaths fell from 38% of all lightning deaths around 1850 to 9% by 2000. The percentage of the national population living in urban areas, where many jobs were indoors, increased. As buildings were modernised with electric and plumbing circuits they offered greater protection from lightning. Consequently, deaths indoors fell from 39% in 1850 to 11% in 1950, and with none in the past 50 years. Other factors contributing to lower fatality rates in recent decades included improved thunderstorm forecasts, lightning location detection systems, stricter safety regulations for outdoor workers, advances in the medical treatment of lightning casualties, better communication and road networks to request and receive medical help promptly, and greater public awareness of the lightning threat. Factors slowing down the fatality rate decrease include population growth and, in recent decades, the increased participation in outdoor leisure and sports pursuits in exposed locations. Fatality rates in other countries are explored. It is suggested that by recognising the influence each factor has on lightning fatality rates, countries currently experiencing high lightning fatality rates may be able to accelerate and enhance the beneficial impacts of some factors, albeit after adjustments to reflect their national social, economic and cultural characteristics.

Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: The Czech Republic, 1919–2022

“…Additionally, the percentage of women in these totals decreased from approximately 59 % to 35 % between 1930 and 2021. For comparison, in the United Kingdom, deaths in the agricultural workforce due to lightning dropped from 38 % of all lightning fatalities around 1850 to 9 % by 2000 (Elsom, 2018). Other factors contributing to the decreasing trend in lightning-related fatalities include an increase in urban populations with predominantly indoor jobs, wider use of lightning conductors, improved weather forecasting, significant advancements in 460 medical services, greater availability of immediate emergency assistance with rapid hospital transport, and increased public awareness of safety measures during thunderstorms (e.g., Curran et al, 2000;Elsom and Webb, 2014;Elsom, 2018;Brázdil et al, 2019).…”

“…For comparison, in the United Kingdom, deaths in the agricultural workforce due to lightning dropped from 38 % of all lightning fatalities around 1850 to 9 % by 2000 (Elsom, 2018). Other factors contributing to the decreasing trend in lightning-related fatalities include an increase in urban populations with predominantly indoor jobs, wider use of lightning conductors, improved weather forecasting, significant advancements in 460 medical services, greater availability of immediate emergency assistance with rapid hospital transport, and increased public awareness of safety measures during thunderstorms (e.g., Curran et al, 2000;Elsom and Webb, 2014;Elsom, 2018;Brázdil et al, 2019). In agreement with our study, Holle (2016) reported a significant reduction in lightning fatality rates for Western European countries and others transitioning from predominantly rural agricultural societies to primarily urban ones.…”

The Impact of IoT and Sensor Integration on Real-Time Weather Monitoring Systems: A Systematic Review

“…Such an evaluation would encompass an assessment of the system's reliability, timeliness, and capacity to reach rural areas effectively. Addressing these discernible gaps would facilitate the development of more robust and accessible lightning detection and alert systems tailored for rural areas, ultimately contributing to mitigating the impact of lightning-related disasters and preserving lives (Elsom, 2018).…”

Myths, Safety and Awareness of Lightning Protection in Bangladesh

“…The other safe location is inside a fully-enclosed metal-topped vehicle [16]. Two thirds of lightning injuries occur outdoors [17]. People work outside like farming and field labour, construction and building maintenance activities, pipefitting or plumbing, telecommunications field repairing works and power utility field repairing activities are most vulnerable in Bangladesh during the lightning strikes as these people do not have immediate protection in lightning.…”