Factors influencing the current and future distribution of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), in Ethiopia

Abstract

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is among the key invasive pests attacking maize and sorghum, the staple cereals in many countries in Africa. The determination of habitat suitability of invasive species via correlative model is among the priority tasks that provide basic information for achieving sustainable plant protection. In this study, we developed a species distribution model of S. frugiperda and identified the key influencing environmental factors under current and future climatic conditions in Ethiopia via the MaxEnt program. The results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the simulated model was 0.856 (±0.010), confirming the good predictive ability of the model. The isothermality and precipitation of the driest month are the most dominant bioclimatic variables with a percentage contribution of 39.4% and 11.6%, respectively, in the model. The percentages of very highly suitable, highly suitable, moderately suitable, low‐suitable, and unsuitable areas were 21.24%, 21.17%, 28.22%, 16.34% and 13.03%, respectively, of the total Ethiopian land mass. From the present to the 2070s, the areas of highly suitable and very highly suitable habitats for S. frugiperda will increase due to global warming. This study noted that the pest was a major threat to maize and sorghum in Ethiopia. Hence, due emphasis should be given to strengthening monitoring and management in a suitable range, which would lessen economic losses due to invasion and ensure agricultural safety.