Factors Influencing the Forecast of Energy Consumption of the Country in the Conditions of War and the Amount of Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Abstract

The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the conditions of compliance with international emission limitations. The conservative scenario of the development of the country's economy is considered. It predicts a moderate recovery, with the economy growing at 2.5 % per year. This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of 2025. The change in the structure of the economy during russia's military aggression against Ukraine was studied. The directions of further development of key sections of the economy have been determined. Strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions are highlighted, primarily in industry and in the energy sector in particular. Reducing fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine will be achieved through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy consumption in production, by switching to the use of more ecological energy sources, such as renewable energy sources; modernization of industrial facilities and equipment to reduce fuel consumption; implementation of energy saving and energy efficiency promotion programs in industry; reforming the energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general. According to the updated nationally defined contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement in 2021, the country committed to achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % from the 1990 level by 2030 and switching to energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. Keywords: structure of the economy, energy resources, structure of energy consumption, forecasting, greenhouse gases.